|
Good Monday morning.
We hope everyone had a great weekend. We know Mark Zuckerberg definitely did as his wealth increased by almost $28 billion dollars overnight after his company META reported earnings Thursday night after the close. That report alone caused all markets, except the Russell, to pop to new all time highs, or very close to them!
There is not much else to say as Fantasy Land is alive and obviously doing extremely well. Even though the market keeps getting bought up and is increasingly over extended, there should be some corrective activity however there just isn't any to be seen....yet! As I've said many times this market is subject to a liquidation break that will last more than 4 hours, and believe me it is coming, but the hard part is figuring out when!!!
Honestly I think the thing I, and many other people missed, is the shear amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been pumped into the markets over the last few years! Trillions of new money just rolled off of the printing presses with such ease.
Think about it....hundreds of billions of dollars just keep being printed and thrown at any and all problems the markets may face. From COVID to bank failures to student loan repayments to infrastructure to the "inflation reduction act" (yeah that's a complete joke) to immigrants flooding into the US from all over the world to wars around the globe, and to whatever else they feel needs money, the U.S. $ dollar printing press just keeps working non stop! And with so much money and wealth spread around the U.S., and ultimately the globe, there are too many dollars chasing the same assets seeking returns on that free money! It's actually incredible when you think about it.
Anyway, as the profile pic below shows, the key levels are marked off and as long as those key levels are defended (4963 to start), the bulls remain in firm control. If we do get some selling today, and I am not saying we will, those targets are also noted for you!
Futures are slightly lower this morning and overnight inventory is net short. We are opening inside of Friday's range so this will make it a bit harder to determine if there will be a fade higher this morning. If there is some more selling and we take out the overnight lows and 1/2 back from Friday (in the profile pic), then target the the prior all time highs first around 4958-4956 then 4930 which is prior days low.
Oh and yes you guessed it.....we took out that lonely VPOC above us at 4950 and we got right back to adding another one below 4888.75, so now we sit with 15 untested points of control below us.
/ES upside target is: 5000-5015
downside target is: 4965-60 (then possibly 4930)
/NQ upside target is: 17,850-900
downside target is: 17,650-620 (then possibly 17,580)
/RTY upside target is: 1980-85
downside target is: 1965-60
Economic Data Today:
PMI Composite @ 9:45 AM EST
ISM Services @ 10:00 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Supply above at $4998 -4980 with Demand at $4965-50 and $4935-20
- I would like to see sellers trapped at key demand first holding above $4950 to
play long targeting $4970 first then $4990
- If the price breaks below $4950 I would then like to wait and play long off a break
and retest at $4925. If price breaks below that then I would like to short if it finds
resistance below $ $4920 targeting $4905 first then $4890
SPY - Key Demand at $483- 484 with supply flipping to demand at $491-492
- The only way I want to play short is if price holds below $489
- I would like to see sellers trapped at the open playing long from $490-491
SPX - Key Demand areas at $4900- 4910 then $4930- 4940 with Supply at $4980-70
- I would like to play long after downside fails to break below demand
- The only way I want to play short is if price holds below $4920
/NQ - Key demand at $17200 - 17230 and then at $17460 - 17500
- Key Supply with HOD at $17805- 17750
QQQ - Key Demand at $420-422 then at $416-418 with Supply at $430-428
- I would like to play long off a break and retest after a sell off holds above $420
AMD Key Demand at $170-172 with supply above at $178-180
- Key uptrend with Demand below at $160 -162
AMZN Key Demand at $167-169 with Supply at $174-172
- The only way I want to play short is if price holds below $167
- Ideally want to see sellers trapped in first hour to play long from demand zone
Have a wonderful day.
| 
