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Good Wednesday morning!
Sellers finally stepped up yesterday and the key levels which were lost to the downside was a huge clue that trade was to the short side, NOT LONG, and boy did that work out well!!!
The S&P cash lost 5830 and closed below that key level @ 5815, but more importantly were the much more dominant AND timely clues in the ES futures:
#1.) 5914 was NOT taken out to the upside and yesterday's high was exactly 5914!!! This was an initial tell the buyers were tired.
#2.) When 5908 was lost, and then once 5896 was steamrolled, that was a big tell that path of least resistance was down and lower targets were nailed, and even went far below, especially in the tech heavy NASDAQ.
As was mentioned yesterday morning:
"IF price starts to sell off and breaks 5896, and then lower targets, then and only then would the current trend and tone begin to change!"
I can't impress upon you enough to pay attention the levels that we give you each and every morning. They are not "opinion" or "feelings" or anything else of meaningless importance. They are market driven and generated levels where they show us whether buyers or sellers are in control! This morning, ES futures are basically flat to slightly higher however they are in the lower levels of yesterday's range. If price can't get back above the overnight high @ 5869 then there should be more downside coming. A loss of Value Area Low @ 5858.75 would open the door to lower targets.
IF buyers jump back in and buy this dip, then once 5869 gets taken out (and again I am NOT saying this is a guarantee) then look for 5882 then 5884.75 which are listed on the profile pic below. Any move above 5884.75 we would then target Value Area High and bottom of spike then upper targets. Futures are trading @ 5865.50 at the time of this writing.
By the way, I will leave you with this one last thing and it's important....
"ONE DAY DOES NOT MAKE A TREND"
I am not downplaying the drop yesterday but let's see where we are at the close of the day. One of the above scenarios will play out, either bullish or continued bearish, so we will know much more at the closing bell!
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added yesterday however that new one below @ 5860 got hit and taken out. We will see if we put in a new VPOC above us today as the POC is higher @ 5884.75 so if price does not get back up to those levels, then this would be another tell of the trend changing and rolling over!!!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5890 - 5900
Key Levels: 5884.75 POC & 5882 1/2 back
downside target is: 5845 - 5835
/NQ upside target is: 20,550 - 20,520
Key Level: 20,377 POC
downside target is : 20,260 - 20,220
/RTY upside target is: 2285 - 2295
downside target is: 2260 - 2250
Economic Data:
MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices @ 8:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Results @ 2:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand ( from Friday )$5840- 50 then at $5865-70 with Supply above at $5919
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5839 after a pullback below $5830-35 looking to play SHORT targeting $5820 then $5802
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5850 after a break and retest above $5855-60 playing LONG targeting $5885 then $5900
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SPY - Demand at $580-581 with Supply above at $585 HOD
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $581 after a break and retest above $582 looking to play LONG targeting $583 then $584
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $580 after a retest from $579 where Demand would flip back to Supply targeting $578 then $577
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/NQ - Key Demand at $200299-20320 with Demand flipped to Supply $20500
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $200299 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $20300 targeting $20385 the $20400
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $20230 and holding looking to play short targeting $20190 then $20150
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QQQ - Key Demand at $489-490 with Supply above at $494-495
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $489 looking to play long from a break and retest at $490 targeting $491 then $492
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $489 after a break and retest below $488 looking to play short targeting $487 then $486
Also watching …
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AAPL Key Demand at $229-230 with Supply above at $237-236
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $229 after a break and retest from $230 looking to play long targeting $231 then $232
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $229 after a break and retest from $228 targeting $227 then $226
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NVDA Key Demand $129-127 with Supply above at $135 -134
Bearish
Sellers trapped below $134 after a break and retest from $133 looking to play short targeting $132 then $130
Bullish
Buyers trapped above $135 after a break and retest from $136 looking to play long targeting $138 then $139
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AMD - Previous Demand at $152-153 Demand that was previously Supply at $162 -163
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $162 after a break and retest from $163 targeting $165 then $167
Bearish
Buyers trappers below $161 after a break and retest from $160 targeting $158 then $157
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TSLA Key Demand at 213 with Supply at $221-222
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $223 after a break and retest from $224 looking to play LONG targeting $226 then $228
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $218 after a break and retest from $217 playing short targeting $216 then $215
Have a great day!
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