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Good morning!
Yesterday had similar structure to Friday's in respect to the markets started strong at the opening bell then sold off hard until the buyers stepped in and took price back up. Friday the bottom was put in at 12:15 PM EST and yesterday the low was put in at 1:00 PM EST. Almost identical chart action. This tells me the recent low from Friday in the SPX @ 5193 is "secure" for now. Remember that was our target from last week at the 38.2% fib retracement. By the way a "secure" low is a low book-ended by two higher lows!
We are also back above that key low from 5/23 of 5257. If sellers were more aggressive we would have been re-testing these lows after the huge bounce Friday afternoon, however that was not the case yesterday. This is what we call "Market Generated Information".
For now, let's keep a close eye on SPX 5280 and see if price is above or below this level when the markets close later today. I am saying this because this will be an important line in the sand as far as short term price action moving forward. If price can stay above that level then we will look for more upside the rest of the week.. If price moves below then we will be looking for moves back to the downside. It is with this knowledge we can stay calm and not try to guess as to which way the markets will go. We now have a roadmap and should act accordingly. Let the markets do its thing and then try to get on the correct side of the trade!
Futures are lower this morning across the board however have been steadily improving and overnight inventory is mixed. We are inside of prior days range so it is a coin toss as to who wins the day today. If price stays below 5281.75 then bears have a chance at our lower targets although we have already hit them in the overnight session. It doesn't mean we can't revisit them today but let's see if sellers step up their operations. If buyers take price back above 5281.75 then look for overnight highs and then prior days highs @ 5313.25 and then keep upper targets in your sights!
SBUX: We added more yesterday @ $81.20 and I'm moving stop to $79.00. Target is between $84.50 - $87.50 which is a gap fill from 4/30.
VPOC Update: No change yesterday. We have 1 above @ 5325 and 20 VPOC's below current price levels.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5325 - 5330
Key Levels: 5281.75 POC & 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5265 - 5260
/NQ upside target is: 18.820 - 18,840
Key Level: 18,595 - 18,580 POC & 1/2 Back
downside target is : 18,600 - 18,575
/RTY upside target is: 2087- 2090
downside target is: 2048 - 2044
Economic Data: Very Light Today
Factory Orders @ 10:00 AM EST
JOLTS @ 10:00 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key demand at $5245-5265 with Supply above at $5315-5305
1. A breakdown below $5246 and holding after a pullback I will look to play short targeting $5220
2. Sellers trapped above $5266 after a break and retest I will look to play
Long targeting $5300 then $5310
3. Buyers trapped below $3505 after a breakout and no follow through ,
looking to play short from Supply at $5305 targeting $5285
SPY - Key Demand $524-522 with Supply above at $529-530
1. Sellers trapped above $525 looking to play long off a break and retest
target $527 then $528
2. Buyers trapped below $524 after a break and retest looking to play short
targeting $521
SPX Key Demand at $5234-40 with Supply above $5340-5320
1. Key level for me will be watching how buyers react at $5305. A breakdown below and retest I will look to play short targeting $5260
2. A breakout above and retest I will look to play long targeting $5330
/NQ Key Demand at $18438 then below that $18374 Supply at $18700
1. Buyers trapped below $18700 looking to play short targeting $18640
2. Sellers trapped above $18500 looking to play long targeting $18595
QQQ Key Demand at $450 with Supply above at $453 and $455 -456
1. Sellers trapped above $450 looking to play long off a break and retest
from $452 targeting $454-456
2. Sellers trapped at $456 playing short after a bounce below and hold ,
targeting $454 then $453
AAPL Key Demand at $189 and $192 with Supply above at $194
1. Playing these levels only, where buyers can be trapped at key supply looking to play short if price holds and retest below $194
2. A breakdown below $192 I will like to play short targeting $189 demand
As ALWAYS, have your stops & targets in place and have a great day!!!
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