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Good Friday morning! (This is the corrected MC!)
To say Wednesday's trading was like being in the center of a mosh pit at the latest Iron Maiden concert would be an understatement! I have been doing this a long time and that was some of the toughest, "choppiest", nastiest trading sessions I can remember. Now I am not saying there was not an opportunity to make money, but it was not easy! The whipsaw moves up and down and back and forth were wicked. Even the most seasoned traders I know all told me it was an extremely difficult day to be in the markets. If you happened to miss it, or were sitting on your hands, then just be thankful. Sometimes the best way to make money is to keep the pile you have. No need to risk it every single day!
Anyway, on to today's business at hand. Even though the market was basically consolidating Wednesday and really didn't go anywhere, this is still bearish in my opinion. I say that because all the trading occurred in the lower third of the prior day (Tuesday) and price could not even get back above the overnight high. (See profile pic.) This was a key level I listed, along with others Wednesday morning, and this bearish price action tells us sellers remain in control. Please pay close attention to the profile pic and key target levels below.
Right now futures have flushed lower on the back of the recently released NFP data (Non Farm Payrolls) which showed the addition of 256K jobs, while the street was looking for 227K. The market is throwing another temper tantrum because this data suggests the FED will not be cutting rates in the near term because the economy is still very strong and it was the strongest jobs data in years! Just remember, I have been talking about lower for some time now and this is just further confirmation that sellers have been in control.
In the target levels and profile pic below, ANY price action that stays below Wednesday's low @ 5935 is the most bearish outcome. Now I am not saying this is going to happen 100%, but that is a very easy line in the sand to watch. Also, please remember our lower short term target is the 5870-5866 area..back to the VPOC and December 20th lows!
IF the buyers come back in and take it back over 5917, then look for movement back to 1/2 back from Wednesday @ 5945 then to the back to back POC's (Points of Control circled in pic) @ 5950. Any further move higher over 5950 the upper targets are there! Futures are trading @ 5906 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC was added yesterday above, however the closest one below @ 5917.75 was taken out and that was the second one lost in as many days! This is an important tell. We still have 4 above and now back to 26 below current price, with the closest one @ 5870 and again close to the December 20th low of 5866 which we have in our crosshairs.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5970 - 5985
Key Levels: 5950 POC
downside target is: 5920 - 5915
/NQ upside target is: 21,440 - 21,460
Key Level: 21,300 - 21,310 1/2 Back and VAL
downside target is : 21,190 - 21,160
/RTY upside target is: 2265 - 2275
downside target is: 2225 - 2215
Economic Data:
Employment Situation @ 8:30 AM ET
Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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ES - Key Demand at $5866 then at $5909 with Supply at $5980
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5980 after a pullback below $5970 looking to play SHORT targeting $5940 then $5910
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5980 after a break and retest above $5985 playing LONG targeting $6000 then $6015
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SPY - Demand at $584-585 with Supply above at $$594
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $594 after a break and retest from $595 targeting $596 then $598
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $585 after a retest from $584 targeting $582 then breakdown into $581.55
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/NQ - Key Demand at $21150-21200 with Supply $21550-500
Bullish
Sellers trapped above 21550 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $21550-55 targeting $21700 then $21750
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $21500 looking to play SHORT after a pullback holds below $21475 targeting $21400 then $21300
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QQQ - Key Demand at $514 with Supply above at $518-519
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $518 looking to play long from a break and retest at $519 targeting high $521s then a breakout into $523s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $518 after a break and retest below $517 looking to play short targeting $515 then mid high $514s
Also watching
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PLTR Demand at $66-67 with Supply at $69.20 -70
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $69 after a break and retest from $68 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $72s then $71
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $70 after a break and retest from $71 looking to play long targeting $73 then $74
Have a great day and a fantastic weekend!
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