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Good Tuesday morning!!
Today is rollover in the futures contracts and we roll from December ESZ4 to March ESH5. Same for the NASDAQ futures.....NQZ4 to NQZ5. If you trade the SPY or QQQ you will see no difference, however, if you trade the ES or NQ then you should be aware of this change. You can still trade the Z contract until Friday but then it will expire and the new front month is the H March contract.
Back to business....the NASDAQ has been the headliner making new all time highs day after day but there has been some selling this morning so let's see if they trap longs above and take price down further?! When the market keeps drifting higher and higher each day without a care in the world, that is when I start to get nervous! A strong pullback or liquidation break can happen at anytime and today will be an interesting test. We have important economic data today, tomorrow and Thursday and of course as I have mentioned, we have a FED meeting tomorrow with their decision on interest rates coming out at 2:00 PM EST. Until then expect ANYTHING!
The key levels to watch in the broad markets continue to be 6030 in the S&P and now 21,880 in the NDX, up from 21,530. Again, until these levels are taken out, the bears are on the ropes.
In the target levels and profile pic below, you can see the sharp drop this morning to new overnight lows @ 6125 which is right in our target zone. So the question now is will this level hold and buyers step back in or do the sellers get more aggressive? The next downside targets if 6120 is taken out would be 6108.50, then 6094.50 then 6080.50.
Any move back above 6136.50 (yesterday's low) could see a short squeeze higher to the POC @ 6154.50. Futures are trading @ 6127 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: A new VPOC was added yesterday @ 6126 but price could easily take that out this morning as futures are down 26 handles. The next one closest below is 6085. So we still have 1 above @ 6166 and 29 below current price. By the way, a VPOC has to be taken out during regular trading hours, not in the overnight session.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
BASED ON THE NEW H5 CONTRACTS
/ES upside target is: 6170 - 6180
Key Levels: 6136.50 Prior Low and then 6154.50 POC
downside target is: 6130 - 6120 then 6108.50 then 6094.50 then 6080
/NQ upside target is: 22,510 - 22,540
Key Level: 22,393 Top of Single Prints
downside target is : 22,280 - 22,230
/RTY upside target is: 2405 - 2415
downside target is: 2385 - 2375
Economic Data:
Retail Sales @ 8:30 AM
Industrial Production @ 9:15 AM
Business Inventories @ 10:00 AM
Housing Market Index @ 10:00 AM
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
- /ES - KEY DEMAND $6100 Supply at with Supply at $6160
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $6100 after a pullback below $6090-95 looking to play SHORT targeting $6055 then $6040
Bullish
Sellers trapped above 6100 after a break and retest above $6105-10 playing LONG targeting $6175 then new HOD
- SPY - Supply flipped to Demand at Supply $604-605 with Supply at $607
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $603 after a break and retest above $604 looking to play LONG targeting high $605 then $606
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $603 after a retest from $602 targeting $601 then
breakdown into $599
- /NQ - Key Demand at $21900 with Supply at $22360
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $21900 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $21910 targeting $2250 then $23300
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $21900 looking to play SHORT after a pullback holds below $21855 targeting $21700 then $21600
- QQQ - Key Demand at $530-31 with Supply above at $536=537
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $530 looking to play long from a break and retest at $531 targeting high $534 then a breakout into $535s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $530 after a break and retest below $529 looking to play short targeting $526 then mid high $525
Also watching
- GOOGL Key Demand flipped to Supply at $191-190
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $192 after a break and retest from $193 looking to target $194s then $196s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $191 after a break and retest from $190 looking to target $188 then $187
AMD Key Demand flipped to Supply at LOD $127-128 with key Demand below at $123 LOD
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $127 after a break and retest from $128 looking to play long targeting $129 then $131s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $127 after a break and retest from $1126 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $124 then $123s
Have a great day!
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