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Good Monday morning!
Well there it was...we had a whopping one day pullback that literally lasted 6 hours on Thursday...and then poof...it was gone the next day! And that's exactly why I said Friday morning...
"I feel that now we are in a wait and see moment. I say this because "one day does not make a trend" so we need to see confirmation of more downside action and value building lower."
It was a choppy day indeed but buyers did not let sellers get the best of them and they defended the tape vigorously. Each pullback was bought and the market closed almost at the highs of the day. Value built sideways, not lower, and we even put in a new VPOC below current levels @ 5596. Also the SPX cash market got within only 26 points of new all time highs! The trend remains with the "ever-floating-higher" bulls since the August 5th lows!
This morning futures are mixed to slightly higher and overnight inventory is also mixed. We are inside of prior days range but price keeps testing Friday's highs so if price takes out 5662.25 then look for upper targets. Anything that drifts back into prior days range could turn into what is called a "balance day" which means the buyers and sellers are at a stalemate. Those levels would be between 5665 - 5640.
If 5640 gets taken out then look for 5632 then downside targets which are listed below. Not a busy day on the economic calendar but we have Durable Goods @ 8:30 and Dallas Fed Survey @ 10:30 AM EST.
VPOC Update: We added another new VPOC below on Friday @ 5596 as 5603 was the low for the day so close but no cigar. By the way, we calculate VPOC's on the RTH....Regular Trading Hours only.... and DO NOT include the overnight session! So we still have only one above @ 5699.50 and we now have 22 untested points of control below current prices.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5670 - 5680
Key Levels: 5650 POC & then 5232.50 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5625 - 5615
/NQ upside target is: 19,940 - 19,970
Key Level: 19,748 1/2 Back then POC @ 19,725
downside target is : 19,645 - 19,620
/RTY upside target is: 2225 - 2235
downside target is: 2140 - 2130
Economic Data:
Durable Goods Orders @ 8:30 AM EST
Dallas FED Manufacturing Survey@ 10:30 AM EST
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
/ES - Demand $5570-82 then below at $5537- 5525 with Supply at $5657 then $5771 HOD 4hr
1. Buyers trapped below $557 and holding below after a pullback looking to play SHORT targeting $5545 then 5526
2. Sellers trapped above $5572 looking to play long targeting $5600 then HOD
SPY - Demand at $557-558 / Supply at $563 -561
1. Buyers trapped below 556 after a break and retest from $556 looking to play short targeting $555
2. Sellers trapped above $557 looking to play long from a break and retest from $558 targeting $560 or if price holds above $461 where Supply would flip to Demand targeting $463 then new HOD
/NQ Key Demand at then at $19665-80 then at $19627with Supply $19806-19823
1. Sellers trapped above $$19665 looking to play long targeting $19700 /25
2. Buyers are trapped below $19627 and holding , looking to play short targeting $19588 then $19550
QQQ Key Demand at $477-475 with Supply at $484-486
1. Sellers trapped above $477 I want to play long off a break and retest from $478 targeting $480 then new $482
2. Buyers trapped below $476 after a break and retest below $475 looking to play short targeting $474 then $472
Also watching ...
TSLA Key Demand at $214-212 then at $218 with Supply AT $226-228
1. Sellers trapped above $218 looking to play long targeting $220 then $222
2. Buyers trapped below $217 after a break and retest looking to play short targeting $216 then $214
AMD Key demand at $551 with Supply that was previous Demand at $556-555
1. Buyers trapped below $156 after a break and retest from $155 looking to play SHORT targeting $153 then $151
2. Sellers trapped above $156 playing a break and retest from $157 playing long targeting $158 then $160
Have a great day and stay safe!
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