|
Good Friday morning,
Yesterday was a classic example of a textbook "bullish day," where the gap held and value built higher, except for the last 10 minutes of trading. All top-line figures were still green, but someone obviously knew something, and they started selling futures aggressively 10 minutes before the close, and right before two very important things that were just a few minutes away: AAPL and AMZN earnings!
Now I'm not sure if earnings were leaked, or it was insider trading, but futures fell off a cliff BEFORE these reports, and then both companies reported after the closing bell, then dropped sharply after their respective reports! Wow, what a lucky coincidence! (lol, yeah right)
Anyway, who cares about that. The day was still bullish and buyers remain in control this morning. Futures are much higher across the board and just popped after the NFP (Non Farm Payrolls) report as the government jobs report showed 177K jobs added vs consensus estimate of 133K. A nice beat.
Real quick: As we mentioned yesterday morning, that reversal off of Wednesday's lows and targets was a big tell that the buyers were back in control. Also, even though there was a gap higher yesterday and overnight inventory was 100% net long, there was only a very minor fade lower, and this is another big tell that buyers remain committed for the present time. The crystal ball is working very well right now!
In the profile pic and key targets below, /ES futures are up +66 points right now, and price is above both the POC at 5658 and 1/2 back at 5642. As long as price remains above these levels, then bias is long and look for upper targets at 5675-5685. Don't forget we have a VPOC at 5690, so that is in play today as well. If buyers get real aggressive and take out our upper targets and VPOC, then next stop would be 5710-5720. Beyond that we could be looking at 5750!
Now if the sellers push price back down, and move below the POC at 5658, then look for 1/2 back at 5642, then VAL (Value Area Low) at 5634, then prior low and ON (Overnight Low) at 5602. Any move below 5602, then look for 5585-5575.
Futures are trading at 5691 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: With the gap higher yesterday and hold over Wednesday's range, price never went down to the POC at 5536, so that is a brand new untested, or untouched, VPOC (Virgin Point of Control). The low yesterday was 5602.25. We still have 7 above and now 16 below. 5690 is definitely in play for today.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5675 - 5685
Key Level: 5658 POC then 1/2 back at 5642
downside target is: 5585 - 5575
/NQ upside target is: 20,150 - 20,200
Key Level: 20,0042 Value Area High
downside target is : 19,825 - 19,750
/RTY upside target is: 2000 - 2020
downside target is: 1955 - 1945
Economic Data: ( Red Star)
Motor Vehicle Sales
Employment Situation @ 8:30 AM ET
More Color By : Rich Rickus
- /ES - Key Demand $5480-90 with Supply at $5580
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5480looking to play a break and retest above $5590 long targeting $5575 then $5590
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5470 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5460 targeting $5440 then a break down into $5430
- SPY Key demand at then at $544-545 with Supply above at $553-554
Bullish Sellers trapped above $544 looking to play a break and retest from $545 long targeting $548 then a breakout mid high $550s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $543 after a break and retest below $542 targeting $540s then a breakdown into $539s
- /NQ Key demand at $19250 - 19200 with Supply above at $19600-19650
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19200 looking to play a break and retest above $19250 long targeting $19400s then a breakout back into low $19600’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19150 looking to play short from below $19100 then $18900
- QQQ Key Demand at $464-465 with Supply at $475
Bullish Sellers trapped above $464 looking to play a break and retest from $465 targeting $467 then a breakout into low mid $468s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $464 looking to play a break and retest short from $463 targeting $461 then $460s
Have a great day and a fantastic weekend!!
| 
