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Good Thursday morning!
To say we are navigating some rough, choppy seas is an understatement. Case in point.....yesterday's price action is a prime example. When the opening bell rang in the S&P futures around 5987 the one thing I said yesterday morning was if we start taking out the overnight high at 6004 and prior day high at 6008, then our upper targets of 6020 to 6030 would be in play. Well once those levels were taken out to the upside, yesterday's high went right to target area and stopped at 6023.75.
Things were looking good at that point and then all of a sudden President Trump, who was holding his first cabinet meeting as the new President of the United States, mentioned tariffs and the markets sold off very very sharply and almost hit our downside targets!! The point being ladies and gentlemen is that you must be prepared for anything in this market environment.
The markets are never "easy" so to speak but it's never been more difficult in my opinion, and I've been doing this for a long time. The short squeezes higher and liquidation breaks lower seem to happen almost on an hourly basis nowadays, and of course there are good opportunities, but there are also major risks, so you must be prepared for anything!
As mentioned yesterday, the VERY KEY range will be the 6015-6020 area and even though that was was taken out, remember what I said.......
" if we don't have a confirmed close over 6020 then it's still edged to the Bears."
The markets closed @ 5970.75 in the ES futures! A long way from 6020!
In the profile pic and key levels below, you can see we are now trading in the large balance area so anything between 6014 and 5984 is a coin toss. Any break of 5984 then look for lower prices, first at value area low at 5970, then overnight low at 5961, and then target area 5940 to 5930. IF the buyers take it back over the POC and overnight highs @ 6014 then look for upper targets! Futures are trading @ 5993 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out yesterday so we still have 3 above and 30 below for context.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6020 - 6030
Key Levels: 6014 POC
downside target is: 5950 - 5940
/NQ upside target is: 21,425 - 21,450
Key Level: 21,237 1/2 Back & 21,367 POC
downside target is : 21,030 - 21,000
/RTY upside target is: 2210 - 2215
downside target is: 2160 - 2155
Economic Data: VERY BUSY DAY
6-Month Bill Settlement
6-Week Bill Settlement
Thomas Barkin Speaks @ 7:30 AM ET
Durable Goods Orders @ 8:30 AM ET
GDP @ 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Jeffrey Schmid Speaks @ 9:15 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index @ 10:00 AM ET
Michael Barr Speaks @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction11:30 AM ET
Michelle Bowman Speaks
11:45 AM ET
Beth Hammack Speaks
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand at $5990 with Supply above at $6015-6025
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5990 looking to play a break and retest from $5995 long targeting $6015 then $6030
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5990 looking to play short from $5985-80 targeting $5960 then a break down into $5940s
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SPY Key demand at $589-590 with Supply above at $600-598
Bullish Sellers trapped above $559 looking to play a break and retest from $600 long targeting $602 then a breakout into $603
Bearish Buyers trapped below $596 after a break and retest from $594 targeting $592 then a breakdown into $591
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/NQ - Key demand at $20990 with Supply above at $21455
Bullish Sellers trapped above $21475 looking to play a break and retest from $21500 long targeting $21600 then a breakout into $21750s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $21050 looking to play short f targeting a breakdown into $20800 then $20700s
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QQQ Key Demand at $516 with Supply above at $520-521
Bullish Sellers trapped above $521 looking to play a break and retest from $522 targeting $524 then a breakout into $526.30
Bearish Buyers trapped below $516 looking to play a break and retest short from $515 targeting $513 then $512
Have a great day!
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