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Good Friday morning,
FINALLY! A significant liquidation break on the back of comments made from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who said "There was a possibility of no rate cuts this year" and also some sabre rattling from Iran and Israel, caused sellers to step up their operations in a big way! Selling that we have not seen since November of 2022.
The sell off was fierce and the market closed near its low of the day, however, most of the time and volume were much higher in the session indicating that lots of people who are long are now trapped!
The key takeaway and data we will learn today will be to find out just how committed buyers are..... meaning are they willing to just step back in as usual and push the markets right back up?!?! If not, then I will be looking for more downside in the foreseeable future!!
As of this writing, futures are higher with overnight inventory 100% net long, at least for now with no true gap. There was an undercut of prior days low in the overnight action so if there is any silver lining for the bulls so far it is the fact that buyers supported 5194.25.
The key levels are listed in the profile pic below and anything that gets below 5194.25 we will look for 5183.75. If buyers keep it above then look for Value Area Low @ 5221 then upper targets should be in play.
VPOC Update: WOW Incredible. On that sell off, 3, yes 3 VPOC's were taken out below.....5294.25, 5243.75 and 5230! We now only have 19 below. (lol only)
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5240 - 5245
Key Levels: 5221 VAL
downside target is: 5180 - 5170
/NQ upside target is: 18,275 - 18,325
Key Level: 18,380 - 18,230 VAL
downside target is : 17,950 - 17,925
/RTY upside target is: 2105 - 2110
downside target is: 2058 - 2055
Economic Data:
Non Farm Payrolls @ 8:30 AM EST
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM EST
Consumer Credit @ 3:00 PM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Demand at $5155 - 5185 with Demand flipped to Supply at $5305- 5295
- Seller trapped at the open after a sell off above $5150 I will look to play long targeting $5190 first then $5205.
- Buyers at the open fail to break above $5250 I will look to play short off a break and retest targeting $5225 first then $5200
SPY - Selling overnight where Demand flipped to Supply at $518-516. Nearest Demand isn't until $507-508 then below that at $503- 504
- First watching to see if buyers are trapped below $518 playing a break and retest from yesterday lows $517 targeting $515.50 then $514.88
- Buyers break out above $518 and hold above I will view this as bullish where I would like to play long targeting $519.40 then $520
SPX - Key Demand at $5040- 5100 with Support at $5135 with Supply at $5265- 5250
- Sell off at the open below $5040 I will play a break and retest short targeting $$4984. Buyers at the open reclaim support above $5200 I will look to play long
/NQ - Key Demand flipped to Supply last night at $18200 with demand at $18050
- Buyers reclaim support above $18250 I will look to play long targeting $18300
- Failure to break and hold above $18200 I will look to play short targeting $18158
QQQ - Sell off bounce at Demand at $$434 with Supply at $441 then at $444-446
- Watching to see if buyers become trapped at the open below $440 looking to play short targeting $438.90 than $437 60
AMD - Key Demand at $165 with a Gap Up and Supply above at $174 - 172
- Looking to play a Gap and Go where Sellers become trapped above $165
looking to play long targeting $168 first then $170
- Buyers at the open fail to break out above $172 I will look to play short
MU - Key Supply at $128 - 126 with Demand at $121-122.50
- Watching to see buyers become trapped at $126 looking to play a break and retest short targeting $125 then $124
- Sellers trapped above $123 after selling playing a break and retest long target $125 first then $126
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great day and an excellent weekend!
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