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Good Monday morning!
Strong selloff on Friday after the Jobs number and once again the game plan and key levels worked their magic! As we've discussed before, I DO NOT KNOW with 100% certainty which way the markets will go on a daily basis, BUT I do know what to look for, whether long or short, and the sellers won the day on Friday in a big way because certain levels were lost to the downside! As we discussed Friday morning....
"The key levels and targets in the profile pic should help your navigation today.
If price stays below 5490 then the bears might lean harder and hit the downside targets again as they've already hit them in the overnight session! If 5470 is lost then the next downside targets would be 5452 then 5415 and 5400. "
Friday's low by the way was 5410!
I would say that today could be difficult to navigate in now choppy waters. As you can see in the profile pic and key target levels, we are in a large balance area between 5471 - 5420. There has been a very large bounce off of the overnight lows (5394) where the price actually took out Friday's lows, however, buyers have taken price well off those lows and are now trading at 5456 at the time of this writing!
Futures are higher on overnight inventory that is net long and price is well within prior days range. If buyers can get price back above 1/2 back then we could see more short covering and a squeeze higher. Anything in between 5471-5420 is going to be a back and forth battle between buyers and sellers! Please make note of the Pivot Point which is @ 5454 so you can also use that as a short term direction point...long above or short below, but stay fluid! Not too much on the economic calendar today so the new battle for the week begins!
VPOC Update: No new VPOC 's were added on Friday however we took out one below @ 5468 so we still have 2 above and now 20 untested points of control below current prices.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5465 - 5475
Key Levels: 5471 - 5420 Now a large balance area
downside target is: 5385 - 5370
/NQ upside target is: 18,730 - 18,760
Key Level: 18,663 - 18,697 Bottom of spike and 1/2 back
downside target is : 18,275 - 18,245
/RTY upside target is: 2125 - 2135
downside target is: 2075 - 2065
Economic Data:
Wholesale Inventories @ 10:00 AM EST
Consumer Inflation Expectations @ 11:00 AM EST
Consumer Credit @ 3:00 PM EST
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
Sunday night preview / pre market
- Watching for Key Supply that was previously Demand early of last week (before Friday's sell off) to hold after a bounce.
/ES - Demand $5375-57 with previous demand flipped to Supply at $5440-30
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5440 and holding below after a pullback below $5438 looking to play SHORT targeting $5422, $5405 then $5397
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5445 after flipping Supply back to Demand, playing long targeting $5468 then $5480
SPY - Demand at $540 then below at $535-536 w / Supply at $543 (previous Demand)
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $541 looking to play LONG after a break and retest from $542 targeting $543 then $545.20
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $540 after a retest from $539 targeting $538 then $537.55
/NQ - Key Demand at $18210 with Supply at $18400-430 then at $18550-45
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $18400 looking to play long targeting $18438 then $18500
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $18350 and holding , looking to play short targeting $18330 then new LOD
QQQ - Key Demand at $445-444 with Supply at $450 -452 (previous demand)
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $450 after it reclaims support , playing long targeting $551 then $552
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $450 after a break and retest below $449 looking to play short targeting $447 then $446
NVDA - Key Demand flipped to Supply Friday at $106-104 with 4HR demand at $100-97
Bullish
1. Sellers trapped above $106 after a break and retest from $107 playing Long targeting $109 then $110s
Bearish
2. Buyers trapped below $06 after a break and retest from $104 playing short targeting $102 then 100s
AMD Key Demand flipped to Supply at $137-136 with Demand below at $132
Bullish
1. Buyers trapped above $137 after a break and retest from $138 looking to play long targeting $140 then $141 or a pullback failing to break below $134 after reclaiming support I will look long targeting $136
Bearish
2. Buyers trapped below $137 looking to play Short after a break and retest from $136 targeting $134 then $132
Have a great day!
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