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Good Monday morning!
First off...let me apologize for Friday as there was no Morning Color sent out. The reason for this was that the company I use to send out these emails had technical difficulties and I was not able to write and send out the issue, so please know we are truly sorry as circumstances were completely out of our control. Also, we are working on a solution so this will never happen again. Thank you very much for your understanding!!!!
Now back to business......
The above pic says it all.....sunny skies quickly darkened and thunder and lighting came crashing down on the bulls heads Friday morning starting around 10:30 AM EST. After new all time highs were notched again, there were SIGNIFICANT liquidation breaks, ESPECIALLY in the sweetheart darling stocks, like NVDA, where sellers stepped on the gas in a big way and dropped the stock over 100 points from its intraday highs!
Other leaders in the AI/chip space like SMCI, AVGO, AMD and MU also exhibited strong reversals from all time highs. Even some retail stocks like ANF, AEO and COST were absolutely pummeled!!!
Now before you get too excited, I have said this before and I will say it again....one day does not make a trend!!! If there will be more selling operations today and in the week to come, any bounces should be able to be shorted, and if we start to build value lower (remember the yellow shaded areas in the pics below) that will be a great confirming signal. If they buy the markets back up and hold at or near the highs of the day, then it could be right back to the bulls. We need to be patient and get ready to act on what the market tells us!
Futures are lower this morning and overnight inventory is 99% net short at the time of this writing. Again we judge this based on where futures are trading in relation to the settlement or close of the previous day. It is also a true gap below Friday's lows so there is a possibility of a fade higher and 5118-5122 would be first targets.
For today's game plan, a very key level to watch is 5135 even though we are now well below that level. Any price action that stays below 5135 tells us that sellers are in control and look for targets 5112 - 5100 to be reached, which is were we are currently trading pre market. If we take them out, then the next stop would be 5085-5065.
Any buying that holds and takes price back above Friday's lows, target 5135 and if that gets taken out, then look for 5160-5170!!
VPOC update: There are now 19 untested points of control below current price however 5112.25 looks like it will be taken out this morning.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5160-5170
Key Level: 5135
downside target is: 5112-5100
/NQ upside target is: 18,290 - 18,220
Key Level: 18065
downside target is : 17,925 - 17,900
/RTY upside target is: 2105 - 2110
downside target is: 2070 - 2060
Economic Data:
Nothing on the economic calendar today.
More Color.......
NVDA - FINALLY BEARISH.....but possibly.......need more confirmation!!! New all time highs Friday followed by huge selling! I'll repeat what I said Thursday......insider selling alert! A director of NVDA just sold 200,000 shares worth $170,000,000 on March 5th!!! Big players and institutional traders continue to sell at these all time highs is a definite sign!!
META - Longs be careful. Still bullish but on the sidelines for now. Won't chase up here but still to early to short yet.
AAPL- Still Bearish! Had an oversold bounce Friday but sold off in the afternoon. $166 still target.
AMZN - Short below $177.49....still looking good but stay alert. They squeezes traders Friday but this still looks good to me short especially if it breaks $174-173. Trail stops to breakeven and even if you were stopped out there is good chance for re-entry.
ANF, AEO and COST looking for more downside action!
/ES - Key Demand at $5120 - 5130 with Supply above at $5200 - 5180
- Buyers failed at the open to break HOD with a break and retest below $5170 looking to play short targeting $5155 first then $5140
- Sellers at the open finding support above $5130 looking for a bounce then pullback to play long targeting $5150 first then $5160
SPY - Demand at $507-506 with Supply at $513-512 then above at $518-516
- Sell off at the open holding above $507 I would like to play long target $509
- Buyers failing to break above $511 I will look to play short on break and retest
SPX - Key Demand at $5120 with Supply above at $5150 and $5190-5180
/NQ - Key Demand at $17900 - 17950 with Supply at $18450 - 18380
- I would only look to play long after a sell off holding above Demand or if we can break HOD and pullback and hold above $18400 to target new HOD
QQQ - Key Demand at $433-434 with Supply at $448-446
- Sell off at the open with Buyers defending $433 I would like to play long targeting $434.22 first then $435. I would only like to play short if price can fail below $445 after a rally to the upside or if price breaks $433 holding $432 as resistance.
AMD - Key Demand at $199-200 with Supply at $215
- Sell off at the open finding support inside demand looking to play long
above $199 if price fails and breaks below I would like to play short
TSLA - Consolidating above Demand at $172-174 with Supply at $184-182
- Failed rally to the upside I would like to play short targeting $178 first then $177
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great day!
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