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Good Tuesday morning!
The DOW hit and closed at new all time highs yesterday however there was some weakness in the other top line figures....S&P, NASDAQ and the small cap RUSSELL all closed lower. They weren't big losses but it's making me start to think....."Is the bounce from the August 5th lows coming to an end?!"
It has been a most impressive move off of those lows and the S&P was only 18 points from hitting all time highs, which were set back on July 16th. The tech heavy NASDAQ was over 600 points from its all time highs so there is still an undertone of people selling large cap tech stocks more than others. I also spotted some insider selling yesterday in CAVA, TOL and ISRG and ALL THESE stocks just hit all time highs! Hhhhmmmmm.....This is definitely telling me something!!
We are still in an uptrend, no doubt about it, but we need to stay alert on more liquidation breaks where value builds lower. The S&P futures, /ES, built value sideways, however, the NASDAQ futures, /NQ's, clearly built value lower and if we lose the 19,525 - 19,500 area, there could be more selling ahead, especially in large cap tech!
This morning futures are lower and overnight inventory is mixed to net short. Both the ES and NQ's are now testing prior days lows so lets see if those levels act as support and bring buyers back into the fray. If the sellers persist, then what I mentioned above about the bounce being over or at least very tired, is the shift and new play to the downside. We still need more time to confirm. Please note...Tech heavyweight NVDA reports tomorrow after the bell so all eyes will be watching!
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's yesterday so 5596 could be in play if our lower targets are taken out. 5699.50 is the only above above current price (for now) so that most likely is not in play today unless we take out yesterdays highs. 5699.50 above and 22 untested points of control below current prices with 5596 the closest VPOC.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5660 - 5670
Key Levels: 5637.50 POC & then 5627
downside target is: 5615 - 5610
/NQ upside target is: 19,765 - 19,795
Key Level: 19,525 - 19,500
downside target is : 19,450 - 19,400
/RTY upside target is: 2245 - 2250
downside target is: 2210 - 2205
Economic Data:
Case Shiller Home Price Index @ 9:00 AM EST
Consumer Confidence Index @ 10:00 AM EST
Richmond FED Manufacturing Index @ 10:00 AM EST
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM EST
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
/ES - Demand $5570-82 then at $5605-5600 with Supply at $5647-43 then at then $5671-65
1. Buyers trapped below $5650 and holding below after a pullback below $5647 looking to play SHORT targeting $5619 then $5602
2. Sellers trapped above $5552 looking to play long targeting $5665 then NEW HOD
SPY - Demand at $559 then below at $557 -555 w / Supply at $563 -564
1. Buyers trapped below 561 after a break and retest from $560 looking to play short targeting $559 then $557
2. Sellers trapped above $559 looking to play long targeting $561 then $562
/NQ Key Demand at then at $19527-05 with Supply $19652-40 then at $19737-50
1. Sellers trapped above $19507 looking to play long targeting $19552 then $19600 or if $19552 becomes support and demand intraday I would like to play long targeting $19737
2. Buyers trapped below $19750 and holding , looking to play short targeting $19600 then $19550
QQQ Key Demand at $473 with Supply at $478 then at $481-480
1. Sellers trapped above $472 after a break from $473 I want to play long targeting $474
then $475 or if $478 becomes support with Supply flipping to Demand playing LONG
2. Buyers trapped below $478 after a break and retest below $477 looking to play short targeting $475 then $474
Also watching ...
NVDA Key Demand at $123-124 with Supply at $131 HOD then at $128-127
1. Sellers trapped above $123 looking to play long after a retest at $124 targeting $127
2. Buyers trapped below $128 after a break and retest from $127 looking to play short targeting $126 then $125
AMD Key demand at $147 - 148 with Supply that was previous Demand at $152 then $156
1. Buyers trapped below $152 after a break and retest from $151 looking to play SHORT targeting $149 then $147
2. Sellers trapped above $147 playing a break and retest from $148 playing long targeting $150 then $152
AMZN Demand flipped to Supply at $176 and above at $179-178 with Demand at $169-170
1. Sellers trapped above $170 looking to play LONG targeting $172 the $174
2. Buyers trapped below $176 looking to play short after a break and retest from $175 targeting $174 then $172
Have a great day!
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