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Good Monday morning!
Well the bulls closed the tape at the highs for the week on Friday and markets were up +4% from a tenuous showing on Friday the 6th and have retaken control of the markets, at least on a short term basis. The S&P and the NDX were up 5 days straight and basically took back the losses (-4.4%) from 8/30 to 9/6! That being said, it is a new week and the important things to watch today and tomorrow will be how the market participants react ahead of the FOMC announcement Wednesday afternoon @ 2:00 PM EST followed by FED Chair Powell press conference @ 2:30 PM EST.
At the time of this writing, the market is pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cut and now it will be whether or not it is a 25 basis point cut or a 50 basis point cut?!? According to FED Funds Futures, they are telling us there is a 35% chance of a 25 bps cut and now a 65% chance of a 50 bps cut! Will it be a "buy the rumor sell the news" event or will the market welcome lower rates with open arms?!?! Tough to say at this point. As always, let the market tell us what it wants to do and pay attention to the key levels as usual!
The important levels and key ranges for today are listed. Any price action between the value area (yellow shaded range) will be a battle zone. If buyers can 5630-5635 then look for upper targets. If the sellers lose 5623-5621 then look for lower targets. I am expecting some volatile price action today and tomorrow ahead of the FED announcement so stay frosty! Be flexible and let the price zones dictate whether you want to be on the buy side or sell side!!
VPOC Update: Yes we added a new VPOC below current price on Friday so we still having 2 above and now back to 22 untested points of control below. Again, I do not talk about these things for my health. When VPOC's stack up above or below price, it is an important tell that should not be overlooked!!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5645 - 5655
Key Levels: 5630 POC & 5623 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5615 - 5605
/NQ upside target is: 19,650 - 19,675
Key Level: 19,520 POC
downside target is : 19,440 - 19,400
/RTY upside target is: 2190 - 2200
downside target is: 2190 - 2180
Economic Data: Light today!
Empire State Manufacturing @ 8:30 AM EST
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
/ES - Demand at $5600-5605 then at $5450-5452 with Supply at $5700
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5595 and holding below after a pullback looking to play SHORT targeting $5577 then $5565
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5620 after a break and retest playing a gap and go from the weekend GAP fill targeting $5615 then $5628
SPY - Demand at $556-557 w / Supply at $564-563
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $556 after a break and retest from $557 looking to play LONG targeting $559 then $560
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $556 after a retest from $555 targeting $554 then $553
/NQ - Key Demand at $19700 then at $19500 with Supply at $19784
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $19700 looking to play long targeting $19755
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $19685 and holding , looking to play short targeting $19650 then$19600
QQQ - Key Demand at $471 with Supply above at $476-477
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $471 looking to play long from a break and retest at $472 targeting $474 then $475
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $470 after a break and retest below $469 looking to play short targeting $468 then at $467
Have a great day!
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