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Good Friday morning,
Another impressive recovery by the bulls as they took back a good portion of Wednesday's losses in the session! Honestly, I did not think we would hit our upper targets of 5125 - 5135 in the /ES, however right at the 4:00 PM EST closing bell, the futures exploded on a few Mag 7 reports. Markets all still closed in the red across the board, however, after MSFT and GOOGL reported after the bell last night and futures are sharply higher.
META (and GDP numbers) took the markets down Wednesday night and Thursday morning, but MSFT and GOOGL took them right back up last night and this morning....hence the warning sign above!! Markets are all over the place and I continue to be amazed at the huge moves and reversals in both directions. There are great opportunities out there but be careful crossing the minefield.
Overnight inventory is 100% net long and we are in what's called a "spike" which occurred late day on the earnings reports. Again these areas or "single prints" represent very little time and volume so they are easily susceptible to retracements. Today will all be about whether or not the buyers have it in them to keep the move going and keep it above the first key level of 5091...the bottom of the spike. The next key level is the overnight low @ 5112....anything above that obviously is even more bullish, and if we can get above the overnight high and yesterday's high @ 5131-5135, well that is even more bullish still! Further upside target would be 5150 which I have mentioned before.
There could be more of a balance day today as traders and investors around the world try to figure out just who is right and who is wrong. The case can be made for either side so lets see who has the stronger hand. We are also in that area where we are close to the overlapping value portion and the TU-POC's....sorry....two POC's that are listed in the pic below.....right around the 5107-5109 area. The reason that is important is because this is where the most amount of volume traded on Tuesday and Wednesday so hence traders consider that to be a fair and safe place.
NOW, if selling pressure comes in and takes price below 5112 and the 2 POC's, then look for bottom of the spike @ 5091 to be in play. Lower targets from there could be 5050-5040. Not high odds but a possibility nonetheless.
VPOC Update: Another VPOC was taken out below @ 5047.50. We now have 2 above and 16 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5135 - 5140 then 5150
Key Level: 5112 Overnight low then 5091 Bottom of spike
downside target is: 5050 - 5040 then 5050
/NQ upside target is: 17,725 - 17,750
Key Level: 17,707 Overnight High then 17,606 Bottom of spike
downside target is : 17,300 - 17,270
/RTY upside target is: 2025- 2035
downside target is: 1975 - 1970
Economic Data:
Personal Income & Outlays @ 8:30 AM EST
Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 AM EST
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key demand at $4962-$5005.50 with Supply above at $5140-5125
1. Sellers trapped after sell off above $5100 looking to play long targeting
$5165 then new HOD
2. If sellers can break and hold below $5065 and hold will look to play short targeting $5038.
SPY - Key Demand at $ 494 - 492 with Supply above $507-509
1. Consolidating in Key Supply at $507-508 with Demand at $498 looking to see if sellers become trapped above $507 looking to play long target $510
2. Sell off with a break and retest holding below $506 looking to play short
SPX - Key Supply at $5090 - 5060 with Demand below at $4990
1. Buyers trapped below $5090 looking to play short targeting $5048 & $5028
2. Breakout above $ 5090 and hold above $5080 after a pull back i'll play
short
/NQ Consolidating inside supply at $17825 with Demand below at $17546-20
1. A breakout above $17825 and pullback above I will look to play long
targeting $17902.
2. Early sell off failing to reclaim support back above $17800 and I will look short targeting $17605
QQQ Key Demand at $420-418 with price consolidating inside Supply at $428-30
1. A breakout above $430 and hold I will look to play long targeting Supply
from at $432 or if there is a sell off met with a bounce above $428 I will
look to play long targeting $430 first then $432
2. A breakdown below $427 and I will look to play short target $426 then
$428
AMD Key Demand at $152 - 154 with Supply at $158-156
1. Sellers trapped above $152 after early morning sell off looking to play long targeting $154 then $156
2. Buyers trapped failing to break above $158 playing short targeting $154
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great trading day and an excellent weekend!
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