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Good Thursday morning!
BLAST OFF!
One headline was all it took to get the markets into the stratosphere Wednesday. Word came from the White House that President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for other countries, with a 10% universal baseline, while country-specific tariffs on China will increase from 104% to 125% as China continues to escalate tensions between the two super powers!
Yesterday, the VIX overnight almost hit 58 and closed below 34! That is a big reversal. Fear has left the building. Well at least for one day. lol We are far from out of the woods, but there is at least a little bit more clarity on the tariff wars so let's see if any more developments come out today. Point is, expect continued intraday volatility!
In the profile pic and key levels below, futures are lower across the board, and the fact that the market is taking back a portion of that gigantic move yesterday is not a surprise. That was historic so short term traders are locking in profits. The big question for today will be if price holds the ON lows (Overnight lows) 5359.50 and POC at 5400!?!
Overnight inventory is back to net short but not 100%. We just had the CPI (Consumer Price Index) come out and futures popped on the release but have given back those short term gains. We are well within the prior day's range and above 1/2 back (5250) which is a good sign for the bulls. If we were below 1/2 back from yesterday, that would definitely put yesterday's move in question.
If price can stay above 5359.50 and then over 5400, look for upper targets at 5450 - 5480. More buying pressure would look for 5525 - 5600. If sellers keep price below 5400 then 5359.50, then look for lower targets of 5315-5300, and if selling pressure picks up more steam, then 5250-5200 would be the next stop! And THAT my friends would all but negate yesterdays epic rally! Futures are trading at 5386 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Two VPOC's were taken out above at 5420 and 5482. The closest one above is now 5690. We now have 7 above and still 18 below!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5450 - 5480 then 5520 - 5570
Key Levels: 5400 POC then ON Low 5359.50
downside target is: 5315 - 5300 then 5250 - 5200
/NQ upside target is: 19,050 - 19,150 then 19,250 - 19,350
Key Level: 18,363 Top of single prints from yesterday then 18,295
downside target is : 18,250 - 18,000
/RTY upside target is: 1970 - 2000
downside target is: 1900 - 1850
Economic Data: Light Day Today
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
6-Week Bill Settlement
CPI @ 8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Thomas Barkin Speaks @ 8:30 AM ET
Lorie Logan Speaks @ 9:30 AM ET
Jeffrey Schmid Speaks @ 10:00 AM ET
Michelle Bowman Speaks @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
52-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
5-Yr TIPS Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
20-Yr Bond Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Austan Goolsbee Speaks
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5289 with Supply at $5400 -5385
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $$5289 looking to play a break and retest above $5305 long targeting $5385 then $5420s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5280 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5270 targeting $5210 then a break down into $5155
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SPY Key demand at $523 with Supply above at $537 and $540
Bullish Sellers trapped above $523 looking to play a break and retest from $524 long targeting $527 then a breakout mid high $528s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $523 after a break and retest below $522 targeting $520 then a breakdown into $518
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/NQ Key demand at $18370 with Supply above at $19250
Bullish Sellers trapped above $18370 looking to play a break and retest above $18400 long targeting $18550 then a breakout back into low $18600’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $18350 looking to play short from $18300 targeting a breakdown into $18150 then high $17110
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QQQ Key Demand at $444 Supply $449-450
Bullish Sellers trapped above $444 looking to play a break and retest from $445 targeting $446 then a breakout into low mid $448
Bearish Buyers trapped below $443 looking to play a break and retest short from $442 targeting $440s then $438s
Have a great day!!
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