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Good Monday morning,
After hitting all-time highs for the 27th time in 2025, it is time to start getting defensive in your positions. This does not mean panic and sell everything, but hedging your holdings, or trimming some gains is not the worst thing we can do. As the market keeps melting up, seemingly without a care in the world, there will come a time when the market will show signs of liquidation as traders, and investors around the world start to harvest gains. We need to be on the lookout for just such events!
October can be a very volatile time of the year, and obvisouly Im not guaranteeing that I know if this much needed pullback will happen any time soon, but at these levels, stocks are very rich, and historically when the S&P is 27x-28x forward earnings, pullbacks have ensued. The exact timing is the difficult part! Today as we start the new week, we are seeing early signs of selling, but it is not extreme. The game plan for today is laid out for you below.
📊 In the profile pic and key levels, futures are lower across the board, however we are opening within Friday's range. As long as price can stay above the prior low at 6,687.25, then the bulls still have the edge longer term. If buyers can take price back above half-back at 6,709, then the single prints and POC at 6,721.50, buyers remain in control and we should look for upper targets. Only if sellers take price below Friday's low, then lower targets will be in play and further liquidation is highly likely over the coming days! Today will be a great baromoter for the next short term move in the market.
Futures are currently trading at 6,703 at the time of this writing.
🧭 VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out on Friday so we still have 9 below the current price with none above. Today we have a good chance to put our first VPOC above in a long time!
Current VPOCs: 9 BELOW!
- 6,661.25
- 6,595.75
- 6,571.75
- 6,509.25
- 6,506.25
- 6,450.50
- 6,396.50
- 6,373.25
- 6,310.00
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6,720 - 6,730
Key Levels: 6,709 1/2 back
downside target is: 6,670 - 6,655
/NQ upside target is: 24,900 - 24,920
Key Level: 24,798 1/2 backk
downside target is : 24,660 - 24,640
/RTY upside target is: 2,475 - 2,485
downside target is: 2,445 - 2,435
Economic Data : Very Light but 4 Fed Governors Speaking Today
Chicago Fed National Activity Index @ 8:30 a.m EST
More Color By : Rich Rickus
1. /ES - Key Demand $6680-6675 Supply above at $6731
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $6675 looking to play a break and retest above $6680 long targeting $6695 then $6700
Bearish Buyers trapped below $6680 looking to play short after a break and retest below $6670 targeting $6620 then a break down into $6605
2. SPY Key demand at $657-656 with Supply above at $665
Bullish Sellers trapped above $656 looking to play a break and retest from $657 long targeting $660 then a breakout into high $661
Bearish Buyers trapped below $656 after a break and retest below $655 targeting $653 then a breakdown into $652
3. /NQ Key demand at $24350-24300 with Supply above at $24900
Bullish Sellers trapped above $24300 looking to play a break and retest above $24350 long targeting $24425 then a breakout back into low $24450
Bearish Buyers trapped below $24300 looking to play short from below $24290 targeting $24150
4. QQQ Key Demand at $590 with Supply at $598
Bullish Sellers trapped above $590 looking to play a break and retest from $591 targeting $593 then a breakout into high $595
Bearish Buyers trapped below $590 looking to play a break and retest below $589 targeting $587 then $585
Have a great day and a profitable week ahead!
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