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Good Friday morning!
Yesterday was quite a ride and our target levels laid out before the open were very helpful once again. We saw a dip initially in the trading session which hit our lower targets, and then right around 10:15 AM EST, buy programs kicked in and the buyers stepped up in a big way and there was a large short covering, buy the dip rally to our upper targets, especially in the /ES. The NASDAQ.... /NQ futures...were just shy of upper targets.
As I mentioned yesterday.....
"Caution however....Because of the large drop the last few days, we could be in for a short covering, or buy the dip rally, but as I have talked about several times in this newsletter, let's see just how strong the bounce is going to be! The strength, or lack thereof, is a big clue and that is what I pointed out yesterday morning....."
The surprising thing to me, however, was the 100% retracement back down to lows of the day...well almost! Both S&P and NASDAQ dropped sharply once those upper targets were hit in the /ES and it was a wild ride back down, with huge moves in both directions, with great intraday opportunities but certainly not easy!
And that was what I meant when I said " the strength or lack thereof" as far as the bounce. A stronger, more committed market would have held those gains yesterday but they did not. I feel it will be tricky today because while we had a big move back down and closed near the lows of the day, the overnight session seems to have brought buyers back into the fray. Let's see if domestic traders here in the U.S. feel the same way when the bell rings at 9:30!
As just mentioned. this morning futures are higher and overnight inventory is 100% net long, however, we are inside of yesterday's range. I will be watching and using the key levels and profile pic below as my guide into the end of the week and you can see very clearly the "Battle Zone" between the buyers and sellers today! I hope you would do the same.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added or taken yesterday. We still have 2 above and 23 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5500 - 5510
Key Level: 5483 1/2 Back then 5465 POC
downside target is: 5410 - 5400
/NQ upside target is: 20,265 - 20,285
Key Level: 19,200 POC
downside target is : 18,800 - 18,780
/RTY upside target is: 2260 - 2264
downside target is: 2215 - 2210
Economic Data:
Personal Income and Outlays @ 8:30 AM EST
Consumer Sentiment @ 10:00 AM EST
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Demand $5425- 5430 with Supply at $5540-50 and $5575-85 Gap down
1. Buyers trapped below $5585 and holding below after a pullback will be looking to play short targeting $5555 then $5543
2. Sellers trapped above $5509 where Supply flips back to Demand looking to play long targeting $5532 then $5545
SPY - Demand at $538-539 then at $549-547
1. Buyers trapped below $547 after a break and retest from $446 target $445
2. Sellers trapped above $538 looking to play long from a break and retest from $539 targeting $540 then $543
SPX Demand at $5392-5400 with Supply at $5507-5526
1. A breakdown below $5507 and holding below after retest from $5505 I will look to play short targeting $5485 then $5472
2. A bounce above $5400 and reclaim support I will look to play long
targeting $5435 then $5450
/NQ Key Demand at $19090-19100 then $18900 with Supply at $19400-395
1. Sellers trapped above $19090 looking to play long targeting $19125 then $19140
2. Buyers are trapped below $19400 off and holding , looking to play short targeting $19396 then $19480
QQQ Demand at $455 then $461 with Supply above at $467-466
1. Sellers trapped above $461 looking to play long off a break and retest
from $462 targeting $464 then HOD
2. Buyers trapped below $460 after a break and retest below $459 looking to play short targeting $457 then $455
AAPL Key Demand at $215 with Supply above at $222-223
1. Sellers trapped above $217 looking to play long targeting $219 then $220
2. Buyers trapped after a bounce below $222 playing a break and retest short from $221 targeting $218 then $217
AMD Key Demand flipped to Supply at $140-142 with Demand at $132 -133
1. A break and retest below $142 from $141 I would like to play short
targeting $1139 then $137
2. I would only like to play long if Supply flips back to demand / Support above $142 or a bounce from $132
TSLA Key demand at $210 then $217 with supply not until $230
1. Sellers trapped above $217 looking to play long targeting $230
Have a great day and an awesome weekend!
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