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Happy Friday!
The mosh pit continues!!!!
After another bearish day yesterday, although the initial move higher happened as we pointed out in MC, the 200 day SMA (simple moving average) seems to have halted the selling, at least for now. 5728 is the 200 day (SMA) and yesterday's low was 5711. The fact that the market has dropped over 6% from the all time highs shows us clearly that the market was definitively overbought and "needed" to correct a bit. And that's exactly what happened, tariff talks or not, this would have played out and was destined to happen!
Now as far as today, we just had a huge rip higher in the futures, followed of course by a huge drop, as the NFP's (Non Farm Payrolls) and Unemployment Rate just came out as traders and investors around the globe are trying to figure out "are the results good or bad"?!?!
In the profile pic and key levels below, we are inside of yesterday's range and overnight inventory is net long, however, there is no clear edge as we move towards the opening bell. Today could be a digestion day as market participants take a break and sit on the sidelines.
Now even with that being said, there will be wicked gyrations again today because FED Chair Powell will be speaking today at 12:30 PM EST and market watchers will be hanging on his every word! As I previously stated, only the brave enter the "Mosh Pit"!
If buyers can keep price above the POC (Point of Control) at 5747 then maybe they can move back up towards 1/2 Back and VAH (Value Area High) and possibly upper targets. If the sellers take price below 5747 then look for overnight low to be tested, then VAL (Value Area low) then lower targets. I hate to sound like this today but it is a "coin toss", or "jump ball" for you sports people, so when there is no discernible edge, well then there's no discernible edge! Futures are trading @ 5741 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Another new VPOC was added yesterday above price at 5851.25 so we now have 6 above and still 27 below. Remember for a long time we had 30 below and ZERO VPOC's above!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5810 - 5820
Key Levels: 5747 POC
downside target is: 5710 - 5700
/NQ upside target is: 20,420 - 20,470
Key Level: 20,150
downside target is : 19,875 - 19,850
/RTY upside target is: 2105 - 2115
downside target is: 2045 - 2035
Economic Data: Red Star
Employment Situation @ 8:30 AM ET
John Williams Speaks @ 10:15 AM ET
Michelle Bowman Speaks @ 10:15 AM ET
Adriana Kugler Speaks @ 12:20 PM ET
Jerome Powell Speaks @ 12:30 PM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM ET
Adriana Kugler Speaks
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5740-50 then at $5830 with Supply above at $5850 then right above that at $5860-70
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5850 looking to play a break and retest from $5855 long targeting $5885 then $5900
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5830 looking to play short after a break and retest from $5820 targeting $5805 then a break down into $5790s
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SPY - Key demand at then at $572-574 then above at $577-579 with Supply above at $585-584
Bullish Sellers trapped above $579 looking to play a break and retest from $580 long targeting $582 then a breakout into $583s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $579 after a break and retest below $578 targeting $577 then a breakdown into $576s
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/NQ - Key demand at $20200 - $20250 with Supply above at $20750 and at $20500
Bullish Sellers trapped above $20650 looking to play a break and retest from $20659 long targeting $20750 then a breakout into $20795
Bearish Buyers trapped below $20500 looking to play short from $20475 targeting a breakdown into $20375 then $20200s
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QQQ - Key Demand at $495 then $491-492 with Supply above $499-500
Bullish Sellers trapped above $501 looking to play a break and retest from $502 targeting $503 then a breakout into high $504s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $491 looking to play a break and retest short from $490 targeting $488 then $487
Also watching.....
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NVDA - Key Demand at $113-114 with Supply above at $120-119
Bullish - Sellers trapped above $113 after a break and retest from $114 looking to play LONG targeting $116 then a breakout into $117
Bearish - Buyers trapped below $113 after a break and retest from $112 looking to play short targeting $110 then breakdown into $109s
Have a great day and an excellent weekend!!
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