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Good Thursday morning,
HAPPY 4th of JULY !!
As we head into this shortened market session (with the close at 1:00 PM EST today and a full market closure tomorrow), we would like to wish each and every one of you a happy and safe 4th of July. Enjoy the holiday weekend!
Now back to business.
First things first....better safe than sorry. I know I had a more bearish tone the past two days, but that was because of what I was seeing in the tape. Now obviously, the buyers continued to step in and support the market and that is fine. We took out key levels to the upside and even hit and surpassed our upper targets! I may be more bullish or bearish on certain days, but that does not mean I completely ignore what the market is doing and try to fight the tape because of how I feel or what I think might happen!! I strongly suggest you do the same. There is nothing wrong with locking in profits, or getting more defensive, but as I said yesterday, it didn't mean panic sell and get out of everything. Anyway, it is Groundhog Day again as markets are up across the board and new highs will be hit again!
In the profile pic and key levels below, you can see we just had a spike to new highs after the government employment report was released. 147K jobs were added versus consensus estimates of 106k. Market participants were obviously happy with the report, however we are seeing strong liquidation off of the overnight highs at this point. As long as price stays over the prior high and POC at 6176, then the edge remains with the bulls. Any loss of that level look for overnight low at 6270, then VAL (Value Area Low) and half-back at 6259. Further selling would target 6255-6245, then 6230-6220.
Futures are currently trading at 6286 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out Wednesday. We still have three below: 6146, 6019 and 6050.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6290 - 6300
Key Levels: 6276 Prior High & POC then 6259 VAL & 1/2 back
downside target is: 6255 - 6245
/NQ upside target is: 22,950 - 23,000
Key Level: 22,882 ON 1/2 Back then 22,854 Prior High
downside target is : 22,825 - 22,800
/RTY upside target is: 2270 - 2280
downside target is: 2230 - 2220
Economic Data :
NFP Employment Report @ 8:30 AM EST
International Trade in Goods and Services @ 8:30 AM EST
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM EST
PMI Composite @ 9:45 AM EST
ISM Services @ 10:00 AM EST
Factory Orders @ 10:00 AM EST
Natural Gas Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
More Color By : Rich Rickus
Back at it Monday!
Have a great day and a relaxing long weekend!
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