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Good Monday morning!
We hope you all had a nice weekend. It was another record breaking week for the markets as the SPX broke over 5300 and the DOW crested 40K and holding!! Impressive indeed. Question now is: will it keep going?
Overnight inventory is almost 100% net long with a true gap above Friday's high as of this writing. The first thing to look for this morning is any kind of fade lower to balance out the net long inventory. Initial target will be at the Friday's high @ 5329 then settlement @ 5327 then POC @ 5320.
As you can see in the profile pic below, these levels are drawn out for you to easily grasp. As long as these upper zones hold, then bulls are in control. If we lose 5327 then look for the 5317 area, and IF tempo and momentum picks up, then lower target range could be in play around 5305-5295
Also, please notice the large balance area we are in. You can see there are three days where value (yellow shaded areas) are overlapping,so there could be more back and forth action until the market breaks out one way or the other!! Never forget door #3. Everyone always thing #1 up or #2 down, but #3 is responsive trade back and forth chop and very few people consider this in their trading plans.
SBUX: Because of the relative strength in SBUX Friday, we added more shares at $76.25. $84-$87 is the target range for now.
AMD is looking good and a hold here at current levels. First target $174 and second target $184.
VPOC Update: A new VPOC was added Friday but this time ABOVE current price @ 5335! This and a lower high from Thursday could be signaling the market is getting over bought, tired and needs a pull back. We now have one above @ 5335 and 21 VPOC's below current price levels.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5335 - 5340
Key Levels: 5317 Value Area Low & 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5305 - 5295
/NQ upside target is: 18.680 - 18,690
Key Level: 18,625 Settlement & POC
downside target is : 18,540 - 18,520
/RTY upside target is: 2118- 2122
downside target is: 2090 - 2085
Economic Data: Very Light Today
No economic data although FED members Bostic, Waller, Barr and Jefferson will all be speaking today starting with Bostic @ 8:45 AM EST. With these speeches comes the potential for increased intraday volatility.
More Color.......
/ES - Key demand at $5266 , $5240 and $5200 with Supply above at $5350
1. Watching dips to be bought up from key demand, playing long. Ideally , if price remains above $5240 I want to be long, a break and retest below I will look to play short targeting previous demand below
2. A break down and hold below $5200 leaves room to $5156
SPY - Key Demand $523 then below that at $520 with Supply HOD at $531
1. Sell off at the open where buyers are trapped above $523 looking to play
long targeting $530. If price breaks under $522 and holds under $523 after
a pullback I will look to play short targeting $521
2. Sell off below $520 failing to reclaim support above i will also look short
targeting $518.20 then $516
SPX Key Demand at $5260 then below at $5220 with Supply at $5235.50
1. Sell offs and dips at key demand looking to play long targeting 7/ 10:1 r:r
until price breaks below $5200 is when I will look to play short
2. A breakdown below $5200 and retest I will look to play short targeting
$5180 then $5167
/NQ Key Demand at $18374 then above at $18560 with Supply HOD at
$18760-40
1. Sellers trapped above $18374 looking to play long off a break and retest
from $18400 targeting $18436
2. A breakdown below $18370 I will look to play short targeting $18345 -35
QQQ Key demand at $442 - 444 with Supply above at $452
1. Sellers trapped above $444 after a break and retest looking to play long
targeting $446. A breakdown down below and failure to reclaim support
above $444 I will then look short targeting $441
2. A breakdown below $440 leaves room to $437 demand
AAPL - Key Demand at $185-186 with Supply above at $190-191
1. Sellers trapped above $187 after a bounce and pullback looking to play
long targeting $189 then new HOD
2. Buyers trapped on a breakdown below $190 failure to reclaim support
above , I will look short targeting $187
TSLA Key Demand at $167 with Supply above at $178-180
1. A break and retest above $175 I will look to play long targeting $180
2. A sell off below $174 & failure to reclaim support above $175 I will look to play short
AMD Key Demand at $155 then at $160 with Supply above at $170-172
1. Sellers trapped above $160 after a break and retest i will look long
targeting $163 then $165
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great trading day and week ahead!
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