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Good Thursday morning,
And there it was. A sharp and violent liquidation break which confirmed what we mentioned yesterday....."time to protect gains!"
The markets don't go up forever, just like they don't go down forever. Yesterday was just the right call at the right time, as traders and investors are taking a breather after a very bullish run-up from the April 7th lows. The market's price action also gave signals that it was time to look for pullbacks. As was shown in the profile pic yesterday morning, the market was "rolling over", and lower highs and lower lows were being made.
Now all that being said, I am NOT saying we are going back to the April 7th lows by tomorrow. In the S&P cash market, I think the next stop is at the 5740 level. In the /ES futures, our lower targets today are 5830-5820, and then the 5730 level then 5570-5560. Again, these additional lower targets may take a few days to hit, but now at least you know what to look for in the near future.
In the profile pic and key levels below, you can see futures are now below yesterday's low of 5847.75. This is the first key level for today. If price can move back into prior days range above 5847.75, then look for overnight highs and the VAL (Value Area Low) at 5878. If further buying pressure comes in, then look for upper targets at 5890-5900, which is close to half-back. The next important area would be the single prints at 5910-5912. IF price can get above upper targets and the single print range, then the shorts would be in trouble and then look for the POC at 5948. This would drastically change the bearish narrative. I am not saying this will definitely happen-- and you can see my upper targets are not even close to yesterday's high-- so the pendulum has swung to the bears for now so edge is with the sellers. Rallies most likely will be sold!
Now, if sellers keep price below 5847.75 and stay there, then look for lower targets of 5830-5820 and then 5790-5780.
Futures are currently trading at 5834 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Finally, that 5854.50 VPOC was taken out to the downside, and a new VPOC was added above at 5960. As we mentioned yesterday, there was only a 15% chance of being hit, so 5960 is a new VPOC above. We now have 6 above and 19 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5890 - 5900
Key Levels: 5847.75 Prior Low then 5878 Value Area Low & ON High
downside target is: 5830 - 5820 then 5790-5780
/NQ upside target is: 21,320 - 21,360
Key Level: 21,073 Prior Low
downside target is : 21,000 - 20,960
/RTY upside target is: 2075 - 2085
downside target is: 2040 - 2030
Economic Data:
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
PMI Composite Flash @ 9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales @10:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey @10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
More Color By : Rich Rickus
- /ES - Key Demand $5800-5805 then at $$5735 with Supply $5993
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5805 looking to play a break and retest above $5810 long targeting $5890 then breakout back in $5900's
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5800 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5800 targeting $5745 then a break down into $5720s
- SPY Key demand at then at $581-580 with Supply above at 586
Bullish Sellers trapped above $586 looking to play a break and retest from $587 long targeting $590 then a breakout mid high $592s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $581 after a break and retest below $580 targeting $578 then a breakdown into $577
- /NQ Key demand at $20995 with Supply above at $21560- 21570
Bullish Sellers trapped above $21000 looking to play a break and retest above $21100 long targeting $21200 then a breakout back into low $21300’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $21000 looking to play short from below $20950 targeting $20800 then $20600
- QQQ Key Demand at $512 then at $516 with Supply at $522-521
Bullish Sellers trapped above $512 looking to play a break and retest from $513 targeting $515 then a breakout into low mid $526's
Bearish Buyers trapped below $512 looking to play short from below $511 targeting $510 then $509
- TSLA - Key Demand at $331-330 then at $312-310 with Supply above at $347
Bullish - Sellers trapped above $331 after a break and retest from $332 looking to play LONG targeting $335 then a breakout into $336
Bearish - Buyers trapped below $330 after a break and retest from $329 below looking to target $327 then a breakdown into $325
Have a great day!
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