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Good Wednesday morning!
Since the highs last Friday the 23rd, the /ES futures have been slowly selling off and value has been building lower as you can see in the profile pic below, yet it does not feel like panicky selling or any other extreme liquidation going on. The fear gauge, the VIX, is back below 14 (showing little to no fear in the markets) and the The Investor Fear/Greed Index is still showing readings in the Extreme Greed Levels!
For now, we will have to see if this two day pullback is bought or further selling comes in. The /NQ futures are showing a bit more strength and seem to be in more of a holding pattern.
It is a bit of a tricky moment at this point in time to figure out where the next move is heading, however the AI story is still in full force AND the crypto play is alive and well as it continues to be "risk on" as Bitcoin has just surpassed $61,000 this morning, not far from those all time highs around $69,000! People are still willing to put money to work period so higher probability move remains up!!!
So far this morning, futures are lower yet we have moved back into prior days range after undercutting yesterdays low just like Tuesday. We actually hit our first downside target of 5068 yesterday so that is in play again today. If that gets taken out, then the next target would be the 5055-5050 then 5040 area. If buyers take it back above 5080, then the double top around 5092 is the first target, and if tempo and momentum remains strong, then 5100-5105 would be in play!
There were not any new VPOC's added above or below so still have 17 untested points of control below current price. Still a record number!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5090 - 5105
downside target is: 5060 - 5050 (then 5040)
/NQ upside target is: 18,025 - 18,050
downside target is : 17,925 - 17,900 (then 17,850)
/RTY upside target is: 2062 - 2065
downside target is: 2044 - 2042
Economic Data: Red Star Events This Morning!
** GDP @ 8:30 AM EST
** International Trade in Goods and Services @ 8:30 AM EST
Crude Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
FED Members Bostic, Collins and Williams all speak today!
More Color.......
/ES - Key Demand at $5040-5050 with New Supply above at $5095 -5078
- Previous Supply is above at $5110 - $5125 where rallies have failed
- As the trend has been Demand flipping to Supply since last week I want to see if rallies fail below yesterday highs or if it finds support above pre market highs
SPY - Demand at $ 503- 505 with Demand flipped to Supply at $507-505
- Buyers trapped at the open playing a break and retest short from $505
- Sellers trapped above $504 to play long and a break out , pullback and hold
- Sell off at the open looking to play short off a pullback or break & retest VWAP
SPX - Same balanced range as yesterday
- Demand flipped to Supply at $5090-5080 with Demand at $5038- 5055
- Break and retest below $5080 I will look to play short targeting $5065 then $5040
/NQ - Bounce pre market Demand at $17890 - 17910 with Supply above at $17980
- I would only look to play short off ab bounce from Supply or below $18000
QQQ - Key Demand at $434 - 436 with Supply above at $ 439 - 441
- First set up I am looking for is a failed rally where buyers are trapped in Supply to play short from $438 targeting $437 first then $435. 50
- Sell off at the open holding above $434 looking to scalp long into $437 then $438
AMD - Key Demand at $174 after a sell off looking to see if that area gets tested again
- Sell off open looking to play a break and retest long from $174 targeting $176
Have a great day!
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