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Good morning!
Markets sold off into the close yesterday giving the bears a little energy but the $64,000 question is....Will it last?!?!
So far this morning, futures are mixed to higher (only DOW futures are lower as of this writing down -37) so buyers stepped in again during the overnight trading session. There was an undercut of yesterday's low in the /ES and /NQ, however, we are now back above those lows and into the prior days range. This is important because if there were stronger sellers present, we would take out prior days lows and stay there!
Now for the key levels and what to watch today! Please look at the profile picture below. As long as we stay above 5080, the bulls remain in control. The next upper target is 5100, and then beyond that, the all time highs @ 5126. The circles represent the points of control for the last three days, so think of those areas as "fair price and value". Traders and investors remain confident as long as price stays anywhere in or near those levels.
Now for things to potentially change to the bearish side, price would have to move away from those POC's lower and start to take out 5068...top of the single prints in the profile pic from Thursday. That area should provide little support and next target would be the 5055-5050 area.
If we lose those lows, remember there is a huge gap below there to Wednesdays highs around 4998! I am not saying we would go down that far that fast in one day, but carry these levels forward in your narrative, meaning keep these levels in front of you once we do actually start to see aggressive selling in the markets. Again, we will get it someday but the tricky part is figuring out when!!! Until then don't fight it!
There were not any new VPOC's added above or below so still have 17 untested points of control below current price. A record number!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5100 - 5110
downside target is: 5075 - 5060
/NQ upside target is: 18,040 - 18,060
downside target is : 17,960 - 17,940
/RTY upside target is: 2041 - 2043
downside target is: 2016 - 2014
Economic Data:
Durable Goods @ 8:30 AM EST
Case-Shiller & FHFA Home Price Index @ 9:00 AM EST
Consumer Confidence @ 10:00 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Demand at $5040-5050 with New Supply above at $5090-5078
- Previous Supply is above at $5110 - 5100 then at $5125 - 20
- As the trend has been Demand flipping to Supply since last week I want to see if rallies fail below yesterday highs or if it finds support above pre market highs
SPY - Demand at $ 503- 505 with Demand flipped to Supply at $507-505
- I would like to play short below $508 , If price can break and hold above I will look to play log targeting $509.75 first then new HOD
- Sell off at the open looking to play short off a pullback or break & retest VWAP
SPX - Demand flipped to Supply at $5090-5080 with Demand at $5038- 5055
- Break and retest below $5080 I will look to play short targeting $5065 then $5040
/NQ - Bounce pre market Demand at $17980 - 18000 with Supply above at $18040- 60
- I would only look to play short off ab bounce from Supply or below $18000
QQQ - Key Demand at $434 - 436 with Supply above at $ 439 - 441
- First set up I am looking for is a failed rally where buyers are trapped in Supply to play short from $439 targeting $438 first then $437.55
- Sell off at the open holding above $436 looking to scalp long into $437 then $438
AMD - Key Demand zone at $171 from prior GAP up with Supply at $184-182
WMT - Key Supply HOD at $60 ( if price holds below I will look to play short)
TSLA - Gap Up from $200 over night I would like to play long off pullback above $200
Have a great day!
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