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Good Tuesday morning!!
They're back!!!! You might not see them but they're there! Stalking and waiting in the woods to pounce. Let this be your warning.
You know when I said last week on Friday morning that I felt a short term top was in and being formed, I was correct but it turned out to be just a day too early. And I feel the only reason we didn't sell off Friday, as opposed to today, was the fact that the jobs report came in better than expected and that convinced more buyers to come in on Friday's session! Well the sell off in yesterday's price action to me was confirmation that this rally is getting long in the tooth and the ever patient bears are back on the hunt!! Again I am not claiming to know the exact minute when the pullback really starts but I am lightening up on longs and looking to get to the short side.
In the profile pic below, you can see we had a decent liquidation break yesterday, and unless buyers take it back over the Point of Control and Over Night high, and into yesterday's range, then the longs are evaporating and we are setting up for a much needed pullback! Again the bears are there but they are patient and when they strike it will be fierce!!
Please pay attention to the target levels and profile pic and they will help guide your trading today. The first key line in the sand today is the POC @ 6074.50 and we are already below that level. Taking out the poor low and over night low should then rotate down towards lower targets. Please note: The only other thing that might delay the selling is that the NQ futures are higher on the back of AAPL hitting new all time highs again in the pre-market so this may keep buyers in the fray. Time will tell. Economic data is light again today so it will all be about the sellers stepping up their game. Futures are trading @ 6067 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: YES! There was a new VPOC added yesterday but it was NOT below current price...it was added ABOVE @ 6098.25. First one above in a very long time. This is another factor that the sellers are starting to show up! We also took out 6062 below so we now have 1 above and 29 below current price.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6085- 6095
Key Levels: 6074.50 POC & Over Night Low
downside target is: 6040 - 6030
/NQ upside target is: 21,600 - 21,625
Key Level: 21,508 POC
downside target is : 21,375 - 21,350
/RTY upside target is: 2420 - 2425
downside target is: 2385 - 2380
Economic Data: Light Today
4-Week Bill Settlement
8-Week Bill Settlement
4-Month Bill Settlement
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index @ 6:00 AM ET
Productivity and Costs @ 8:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Treasury Buyback Results @ 2:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - KEY DEMAND $6060-70 Supply at with Supply at $6105-6111 HOD
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $6060 after a pullback below $6055-50 looking to play SHORT targeting $6035 then $6020-15
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $6060 after a break and retest above $6070-75 playing LONG targeting $6100 then new HOD at $6115
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SPY - Supply flipped to Demand at $603-604 with Supply $609
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $603.90 after a break and retest above $604 looking to play LONG targeting high $605 then low $606
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $604 after a retest from $603 targeting $602 then breakdown into $601
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/NQ - Key Demand at $21385-80 then above that $21420 at with Supply at $21650
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $21400 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $21440 targeting $21500 then $21550
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $21400 and holding below $21380 looking to play short targeting $21300 then at $21260
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QQQ - Key Demand at $524 then below at $520-521 that was previous Supply then NEW Supply above at $526market High.
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $520 looking to play long from a break and retest at $521 targeting high $523s then a breakout into $524
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $520 after a break and retest below $519 looking to play short targeting $517 then mid high $515s
Also watching
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NVDA Demand flipped back to Supply at $140-141 with Demand below at $137s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $140 after a break and retest from $139 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $ $137then new $136
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $139 after a break and retest from $140 looking to play long targeting $141 then $143
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AMD Key Demand at LOD $131 - with Supply above at $137-136
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $137 after a break and retest from $138 looking to play long targeting $139 then $141s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $136 after a break and retest from $135 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $133 then $132
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AAPL Key Demand at $241 then at $244 with Supply above at $248
Bearish
- Sellers trapped below $244 after a break and retest above $243 playing SHORT targeting
$241 then breakdown into $240s
Bullish
- Buyers trapped above $244 after a break and retest above $245 playing LONG targeting
$247 then breakout into $248
Have a great day!
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