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Good Monday morning,
We hope you all had a great weekend!
The selling pressure has persisted now for about two weeks and we have not seen these levels in months....not since 2/21/2024 for the SPX and 1/19/2024 for the NDX.
Please note this SHOULD NOT come as any kind of surprise as we have been in a long overdue for a pullback in this melt up market now since the October 27th lows of 2023 and have been warning of this for some time!
As far as the current tone, futures are up sharply this morning and we could be in for some short covering and "buy the dip" operations over the next day or so. One main reason being what we mentioned on Friday as far as targets and levels being hit to the downside.....
"One important thing to note in the overnight session is that the low came right into the 61.8% retracement from the January 2024 lows to the March 2024 highs showing us that responsive traders stepped in and bought those lows! We are almost 90 points off of those overnight lows so this is a quite impressive move as traders bought the dip @ 4975!"
In the profile pic below, the levels are there to watch...if we can stay above the settlement and point of control 5004-5003, and then 1/2 back 5024, the upper targets should be in play. With overnight inventory 100% net long, there might be a quick fade lower to balance out the inventory but if that doesn't happen, that is a good sign for an oversold bounce to continue.
If sellers do come back into the fray and take price back below 1/2 back then down to settlement and POC, then lower targets should be in your crosshairs.
VPOC Update: W still have 2 above @ 5297.75 and 5151.50 and we took out 5033.75 Friday! We now only have 15 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5040 - 5050
Key Level: 5000 - 5010 Overnight high and POC
downside target is: 4980 - 4970
/NQ upside target is: 17,370 - 17,390
Key Level: 17,180 - 17,200 Overnight high and POC
downside target is : 17,050 - 17,025
/RTY upside target is: 1970- 1975
downside target is: 1940 - 1935
Economic Data: Very Light today!
Chicago Fed @ 8:30 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key level of Demand at $4960 ( LOD ) with Supply above at $5050-5062.
- Key Supply above Friday from Monday - Wednesday at $5128-5100
1. Buyers trapped below $5128 looking to play short after a breakout rally
falls at the open or if there is a break and retest from Friday's Supply target
$4990
2. I would only want to play long if price can break and hold above $5130
SPY - Key Demand at $491 with Supply above at $500 the $502-503
1. Buyers trapped below $503 looking to play short after a rally fails to find
support looking for a break and retest targeting $497 then $494
2. I would only want to play long if price can break and hold above $504
where Supply would flip to demand targeting $505 then $506
SPX - Key Supply at $5020-5010 with Demand below at $4950 - 4970
1. Buyers trapped at the open below $5020 looking to play short target $
4985
2. I would only like to play long if price can break and hold above $5100
/NQ - Key Demand below at $17000 with Supply above at $17600 - 17595
1. Buyers trapped at the open below Supply looking to play short targeting
$17450 then $17400. I would only look to play long if it can find Support
above $17600 targeting $17680. Supply above that at $17913 -17987
QQQ - Gap up over the weekend inside Demand at $415 with Supply from Friday at $423 then also above that at $428
1. Buyers trapped inside $423-424 Supply looking to play a break and retest
from $423 short targeting $419 then 418
2. Sell off at the open with new LOD at $414 looking to play long targeting
$416 after there is a bounce intraday inside Demand also confirmed by the
tape.
AMD Gap up inside Demand at $144-146 with Supply above at $152-154 & $156
1. Buyers fail to break out above $152 at the open looking to play short off a break and retest from $151 targeting $148
2. Sellers trapped at demand playing a break and retest long from $146
targeting $148 first then $150
TSLA Gap down below previous demand from Friday looking to short after a rally fails at $147 playing short targeting $144 then new LOD. Not interested in
longs.
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great trading day!
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