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Good Thursday morning!
The rough and choppy seas continue at the present time but once again market participants stepped up and seemed to have stop the bleeding from the big drop on Tuesday resulting from the dock workers strike and increased war activities between Iran and Israel. At least for now. To me we are starting to roll over so I would caution any new aggressive long trades and look to tighten stops on current positions while also looking for potential short opportunities.
I am not saying we will fall out of the sky today but when I see what happened yesterday, there does seem to be some caution and hesitancy from the buyers. The reason for my saying this is because yesterday morning, I mentioned a very key level which would be very important so for a quick recap....
"If the buyers don't step up and support this market today, then I feel we could be in for more downside. And today the key levels in the S&P futures are 5771, which is 1/2 back from yesterday, and 5759.75 which is the POC! "
Well yesterdays high was 5772.25!! First we dropped and hit our downside target of 5735 - 5725 (yesterdays low was 5724!) then buyers stepped back in and took us back above the POC and up to that key level of 5771, but that's basically as far as buyers would go. This is a big tell!! The fact that this level is now resistance we must pay close attention as we trade today and tomorrow!!! The key lines in the sand are of the utmost importance and continue to be now more than ever!!!
This morning we are basically in the middle of yesterday's range and the upper and lower boundaries will be critical as we move forward. If buyers can take price back above 5761.75 and then over 5772, then look for upper targets and the downside pressure is relieved. However if price can't get back above those levels then look for lower targets of 5730 - 5725 then 5705 - 5700 where we have a VPOC! Last scenario of course will be if the market just "balances" here and stays between 5772 and 5742. Also please remember, we have the important jobs number tomorrow morning so participants may be on the sidelines awaiting this information to hit the tape.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out yesterday however that could change today as 5700 could be in play!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5780 - 5785
Key Levels: 5761.75 Back to back POC's then 5772
downside target is: 5730 - 5725
/NQ upside target is: 20,160 - 20,180
Key Level: 19.963 1/2 Back and 19,984 Value Area Low
downside target is : 19,875 - 19,845
/RTY upside target is: 2230 - 2240
downside target is: 2198 - 2175
Economic Data:
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
52-Week Bill Settlement
Challenger Job-Cut Report @ 7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
PMI Composite Final @ 9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders @ 10:00 AM ET
ISM Services Index @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks @ 10:40 AM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks @ 10:40 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement @11:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement @11:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement @11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @11:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @4:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand $5724 LOD then at $5750 with Supply at $5830 -20
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5730 after a pullback below $5720 looking to play SHORT targeting $5700 then $5685 or a breakout failing to hold above $5780 I will look to play SHORT
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5780 after a break and retest above $5785 playing LONG targeting $5805 then $5820
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SPY - Demand at $566-565 w / Supply at $575 574 and then at $571
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $571. 50 after a break and retest looking to play LONG targeting $573 then $574
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $570 after a retest from $569 targeting $567 then $566
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/NQ - Key Demand at $19817- 19870 with Supply $20100
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $20100 looking to play long targeting $20155 then $20200
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $19870 and holding , looking to play short from $19850 targeting NEW LOD
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QQQ - Key Demand flipped to Supply at $485 with Demand below at $481-482
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $482 looking to play long from a break and retest at $483 targeting $487 then $484 then $485.
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $482 after a break and retest below $481 looking to play short targeting $479 then $478
Also watching …
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NVDA Key Demand at 119 with Supply above at $122-123
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $119 playing a break and retest looking to target $121 then $123
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $118 after a break and retest from $117 looking to play short targeting $115 then $114.70
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BA Key Demand at $151-150 with Supply at $156-155
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $156 trendline playing SHORT from $155 targeting $154 then $high $152s
Have a great day!
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