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Good Monday morning,
Now that was a wild ride on Friday!
The SPX and NDX hit new all-time highs, and it felt like there wasn't a care in the world—until, suddenly, there was. Or wait... was there?
I know it sounds crazy, but after those fresh record highs, news broke that President Trump had ended all talks with Canada—and the markets tanked. There was heavy selling for nearly two solid hours. Price actually hit our downside targets (after tagging the upper ones first!).
Then, buyers stepped back in and drove prices sharply higher into the close. We didn’t reclaim new intraday highs, but what looked like a clear “reason” to sell didn’t hold for long.
And that, right there, is what I meant about "caring." Does the market actually care about those headlines? Today should be an interesting day, because this morning, the futures are right back up, and we will be hitting new al time highs once again. Canada also announced that it’s dropping its digital services tax to restart trade talks with the U.S.—a move being perceived as a positive.
In the profile pic and key levels below, you can see we have a true gap outside of Friday's range, and the overnight low went right to the POC at 6224.75. This will be VERY important for today. If price stays outside of Friday's high at 6239, then the obvious edge stays with the bulls. Our upside targets are in play at 6260-6270. Next stop would be 6300.
Now, with a true gap and overnight inventory that is 100% net long, there is a high probability for a fade lower to balance out the inventory. If price breaks back below prior high and overnight half-back at 6239, then look for a move lower to the POC and overnight low at 6224.75. Further downside we would look for our lower targets at 6210-6200, which is Friday's half-back and VAL (Value Area Low). Further selling could see 6170-6160.
Futures are currently trading at 6244 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added on Friday. We currently have three below: 6146, 6019 and 6050. With price at new all time highs, there are no VPOC's above!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6260 - 6270
Key Levels: 6239 Prior High then 6224.75 POC then 6211.25 1/2 back
downside target is: 6210 - 6200
/NQ upside target is: 22,950 - 23,000
Key Level: 22,825 Prior High then 22,797 POC
downside target is : 22,725 - 22,700
/RTY upside target is: 2215 - 2225
downside target is: 2175 - 2165
Economic Data :
Chicago PMI @ 9:45 AM EST
More Color By : Rich Rickus
- ES - Key Demand $6140 -6150 then below at $5960 with Supply
above at $6170-80
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $6140 looking to play a break and retest above $6150 long targeting $6172 then $6180
Bearish Buyers trapped below $6100 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5995 targeting $5958 then a break down into $5920’s
- SPY Key demand at $606 then at $603-604 with Supply above at
$610-612
Bullish Sellers trapped above $606 looking to play a break and retest from $607 long targeting $609 then a breakout into high $611 new HOD
Bearish Buyers trapped below $605 after a break and retest below $604
targeting $603 then a breakdown into $601
- /NQ Key demand at $22200 then at $21500 with Supply above at
$22380-22400
Bullish Sellers trapped above $22200 looking to play a break and retest above $22010w long targeting $22300 then a breakout back into low $22400
Bearish Buyers trapped below $21550 looking to play short from below $21500 targeting $21400 then $21200s
- QQQ Key Demand at $540 then $535-536 with Supply at $544
Bullish Sellers trapped above $539 looking to play a break and retest from $540 targeting $542 then a breakout into high $543
Bearish Buyers trapped below $539 looking to play a break and retest below $538 targeting $535 then $533
Have a great day!
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