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Good Tuesday morning!
Yesterday, the bears launched another vicious attack as the DOW dropped 900 points and the S&P shed 155. As we mentioned yesterday.....
"At the opening bell, we will once again be below 5700, but if the buyers can defend 5700 and move back over it, then we could be seeing a short term bottom. HOWEVER, if the sellers persist, then the next target in S&P cash will be 5550-5560 range. I am NOT saying we get there today, but if we have a confirmed close below 5700 in the S&P cash, then the writing is on the wall for further downside."
Well I have to be honest, even the huge drop yesterday surprised me, and I say that because of just how fast we hit that downside targets in the S&P. The 5560-5550 range we mentioned as next target was only missed by 4 points!!! Yesterday's low in the S&P cash was 5564!! I mean these levels are money so I hope you are paying attention!
As far as today, there was an excess low yesterday so we could be seeing some retracement back to the upside, but as always there is a caveat!!! Look I don't have a crystal ball however I know what to look for once the opening bell rings. IF the buyers step in and defend and "buy the dip" price HAS to get back over 5623.50 and then 5642 for the retracement to have a chance. Now IF these levels are not taken out to the upside then the bears still have a stranglehold on the bulls.
If sellers continue liquidating into cash (meaning selling holdings to go back to cash), look for lower targets, especially if price stays below 5623.50. Any action between 5623.50 and 5642 is the battle zone between buyers and sellers - a staging area for the next move, EITHER up or down!!! First target below 5623.50 is VAL at 5640 then lower targets given. Futures are trading at 5619 at the time of this writing, slightly below the key level we're watching.
VPOC Update: Yes you guessed it. Another new VPOC added above at 5769 and two taken out below yesterday. We now have 7 above 25 below. 5661 and 5600 are now gone after the strong sell-off.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5690 - 5700
Key Levels: 5642 1/2 Back and 5623.50 POC
downside target is: 5570 - 5560
/NQ upside target is: 19,800 - 19,825
Key Level: 19,460 POC
downside target is : 19,275 - 19,240
/RTY upside target is: 2050 - 2060
downside target is: 2000 - 1985
Economic Data: Very Light Day
4-Week Bill Settlement
8-Week Bill Settlement
4-Month Bill Settlement
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index @ 6:00 AM ET
JOLTS @ 10:00 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Treasury Buyback Results @ 2:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5540 then at $5600-5625 with Supply above at $5760-50 then below that at $5710- 5700
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5710 looking to play a break and retest from $5715 long targeting $5728 then $5745
Bearish : Buyers trapped below $5710 looking to play short after a break and retest from $5699 targeting $5675 then a break down into $5651
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SPY - Key demand at then at $560-561 then Supply above that at $566-567
Bullish Sellers trapped above $560 looking to play a break and retest from $561 long targeting $563 then a breakout into $564
Bearish Buyers trapped below $560 after a break and retest below $559 targeting $558 then a breakdown into $556
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/NQ - Key demand at $19500 515 with Supply above at $20165-20100
Bullish Sellers trapped above $20100 looking to play a break and retest from $20175 long targeting $20250 then a breakout into $20300
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19500 looking to play short from $19450 targeting a breakdown $19300s into then $19250s
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QQQ Key Demand at $474-475 with Supply above $480-481
Bullish Sellers trapped above $480 looking to play a break and retest from $481 targeting $483 then a breakout into low $484
Bearish Buyers trapped below $76 looking to play a break and retest short from $477 targeting $475 then $474s
Also Watching
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NVDA - Key Demand at $106 with Supply above at $110-109
Bullish - Sellers trapped above $110 after a break and retest from $111 looking to play LONG targeting $113 then a breakout into $114
Bearish - Buyers trapped below $109 after a break and retest from $108 looking to play short targeting $106 then breakdown into $105.60
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AMD - Key Demand at $95-96 with Supply above at $101-100
Bullish - Sellers trapped above $101 with it forming Support looking to play a break and rest long targeting $103 then $104
Bearish - Buyers trapped below $100 after a break and retest below $99 targeting $97 then $96
Have a great day!!
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