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Good morning everyone and Happy Wednesday.
Well the market magicians did it again...they made sellers disappear! The NASDAQ (/NQ's) found support right at prior days lows and the SPX (/ES) barely budged. It looked like there may be more weakness in the tech heavy NASDAQ, and for all intents and purposes, the NDX did close lower by 40 points, but in the grand scheme of things, this is NOTHING!!!! A blip on the radar at most.
Markets remain intact from a structural standpoint and all the action is in the intraday games i.e. wicked intraday volatility. Longer term holders are still sitting pretty. Now with that being said, I am seeing cracks in some of the Magnificent 7 as there was noticeable weakness in META, NFLX and NVDA. This could be something or it could be nothing at this point as one day does not make a trend, but keep an eye on these three for short plays. They have certainly been bid up to the moon!
By the way that key level held again in the /ES....4955!! Yesterdays low was 4955 to the tic! Now that is NOT a coincidence people. Value built sideways and the current trend sits in favor of the bulls. NQ's did have a decent liquidation break and there were single prints above 17,670 but because of the big gap higher this morning, those levels have already been eviscerated by the bulls! Anything above 17.665 which is 1/2 back and 17,670 is the base of the spike, then bulls remain firmly in control! They now have a new backstop to lean against at these prices!
As always please pay attention to the profile pic below. 4955 has been very important and now the next line in the sand is 4975. As long as price stays above these levels the bulls have nothing but sunny skies ahead. And as I noted yesterday........
"Ultimately I still think the powers to be want that 5000 print on the tape....will make for such great headlines!!!"
Futures are all higher this morning and overnight inventory is mixed but we have a true gap outside of prior days range in the /ES. There is a chance for a fade lower to balance out the overnight inventory but that trade is not as strong since the overnight inventory is mixed vs net long. When there is a true gap AND inventory that is net long, there is a higher probability for a fade lower. This morning it sits at 50/50. If we do fade then target yesterdays highs @ 4978.25, however if the buyers stand strong, then target that magic 5K!
No new VPOC's today. We did have 1 VPOC above at 4980.25 however with this big gap higher this morning and futures trading @ 4990 at the time of this writing, we not sit with 16 untested points of control below.
/ES upside target is: 4995-5000
downside target is: 4980-4975
/NQ upside target is: 17,750-17.775
downside target is: 17,695-17.675
/RTY upside target is: 1975-1977
downside target is: 1959-1955
Economic Data Today:
International Trade in Goods and Services @ 8:30 AM EST
Crude Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
Consumer Credit @ 3:00 PM EST
**FED members Kugler, Collins, Barkin and Bowman all speak today during market hours.
More Color.......
/ES - Demand at $4925-4935 and at then at $4950-4960
- Key Supply above at $4990 - 5,000
- The only thing I want to to short is if rally fails to hold above $4950 on a break
and retest under $4949 or if price holds below $4985 ( yesterday High)
SPY - Key Demand at $488-490 and $492 support with Supply at $496-494
- Sellers trapped at the open inside Supply playing short at $495 after pullback
- Break and retest from $492 to play long targeting $493.40 first then $495
- Sell off into Demand if price breaks below $490 I will wait to see how price reacts
at $489-88. Below that leaves room to the downside, I will look to play short.
- If price beaks above $495 and hold i will look to play long targeting new HOD
SPX - New Supply formed yesterday at $4960-50 Key Demand areas at $4920- 4930
- Previous Supply at $4980-4970
- I would like to play long off dips being bought up after a pullbacks above $4930
- The only way I can look to play short is price holds below $4920
/NQ - Key demand at $17580 - 17548 and then at $17460 - 17500
- Consolidating overnight inside Key Supply with HOD at $17805- 17750
Same as yesterday inside balanced range :
QQQ - Consolidating inside Supply at $430-428 - Key Demand is at 424-425 and $422
- Ideally I would like to play long off a break and retest from $425 long target $427
- Below $425 leaves room to the downside to play short targeting $422
I am also watching …
AMD - Demand flipped to Supply at $170-171 with Demand at $159-162
- If price fails to break and $172 I will look to play short / above I will look long
- Sellers trapped after sell off into Demand playing long from $162
META - Demand at $450 460 looking to flip to supply - below that leaves potential room
to the down side where nearest Demand isn't until $387-390
- Price holding below $455 to play short
TSLA - Gap Up over night where Key Supply is now at $196-192
- I would like to play short off failed rallies to the upside below $190
Have a wonderful day.
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