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Good Thursday morning and welcome to 2025!
A new day and a new year...think of the possibilities! Our call of the day to start 2025 is.....
Focus on your strengths and minimize your weaknesses!
Not only in your overall life is this true, but in the realm of trading, just making minor corrections over the course of an entire year can add up big time! Better trade management, setting stops, cut losses quickly and let winners run. These are just a few things you can do in 2025 to help your overall returns!! And remember, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. I will be discussing more trading rules and resolutions you can make which will help you in 2025!
Now back to the business at hand. Futures are gapping up this morning and have essentially gone all the way back up to Tuesday's highs. They have also hit our upside targets for today already, so the key question will be "Can the buyers hold this gap?"
In the key levels and profile pic below, you can see Tuesday's high was exactly to Monday's POC and that is important. The fact that price was there initially was a good sign for the buyers, however, that did not last long as the sellers overwhelmed the bulls and broke over 60 points lower. This was a good sign for the bears and based on where we closed Tuesday, I would have expected lower. Well, it's funny how quickly things can change. Overnight players have recovered those 60 down points so now it is back to a coin toss, a jump ball if you will, and the important line in the sand will be 5980.25 moving forward today and tomorrow.
If the buyers can get it and keep it above 5980.25, and then up to 5990 (which is the upper end of our target range to begin with), then any move above 5990 look for 6010 then 6032! Only if tempo and momentum accelerates to the downside and takes out 5980.25, then look for 5949 which is 1/2 back from Tuesday and also Value Area High, and then if that level gets taken out, look for the POC next @ 5936 then 5920 then lower targets! Futures are trading @ 5984 at the time of this writing. It will be a tug of war once the opening bell rings to see who will win 5980.25!
VPOC Update: No new VPOC added Tuesday, however, as we have stated we have added 5 new VPOC's above price recently. This is still a signal market was getting tired. We have 5 above with the closest one @ 6027.25 and 26 below current price with the closest sitting @ 5986.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5980 - 5990
Key Levels: 5980.25 POC VERY KEY LEVEL then 5949
downside target is: 5890 - 5880
/NQ upside target is: 21,450 - 21,490
Key Level: 21,336 1/2 Back then 21,225 POC
downside target is : 21,075 - 21,050
/RTY upside target is: 2270 - 2275
downside target is: 2225 - 2220
Economic Data: Busy DAY
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7:00 AM ET
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
PMI Manufacturing Final @ 9:45 AM ET
Construction Spending @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 1:30 AM ET
4-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - KEY DEMAND $5910-20 then below that at $5880-60 with Supply $6040-20
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $6040 after a pullback below $6030 looking to play SHORT targeting $6005 then $5985
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $6040 after a break and retest above $6045 - 50 playing LONG targeting $6100 then new HOD.
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SPY - Demand at $586-587 with Supply at $595- 594
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $587 after a break and retest above $588 looking to play LONG targeting high $590 then breakout into $591 or strong breakout above and pullback hold from $595 where Supply flips back to Demand targeting $597 then $598
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $594 after a retest from $593 targeting $592 then breakdown into $591
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/NQ - Key Demand at $21255 - 21350 with Supply at $21750 -21700
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $21750 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $21755 targeting $21825 then $21900
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $21700 looking to play SHORT after a pullback holds below $21650 targeting $21550 then $21500
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QQQ - Key Demand at $518-519 with Supply above at $523- 522
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $522 looking to play long from a break and retest at $523 targeting high $524s then a breakout into $525 and $526
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $522 after a break and retest below $521 looking to play short targeting $519 then mid high $516s
Also watching
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NVDA Demand flipped back to Supply at $138-137 with Demand below at $135-134
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $138 after a break and retest from $137 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $ $135 then high $133s
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $138 after a break and retest from $139 looking to play long targeting $141 then $142
Have a great day!
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