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Good Tuesday morning!
It's touch and go, folks! This current market doesn't seem like it knows what it wants to do, and while there were moments of incredible price action yesterday, (as evidenced by the perfect pullback to touch the POC as we listed), the way it closed yesterday and the balance this morning, leave me guessing. Sorry to say, but that's just how it is sometimes!
Futures are lower today and price is inside the prior day's range, with overnight inventory that is mixed. This all tells me that there is no edge for either side once the opening bell rings at 9:30. That being said, we have identified key price levels and target ranges, so we are not flying blind. Now while I was leaning more bullish yesterday, the overnight inventory that was net long faded (lower) and we got the pullback to the POC however, we are close to losing those key levels again (5392), which would change the tone. As I said yesterday...
"The only thing that would change this narrative would be if certain key levels and targets were taken out to the downside, and you can see the playbook below."
Now as just mentioned, price went down to the very important level, the POC (Point of Control) at 5392 and bounced perfectly. Yesterday's low was 5391! The issue we are seeing now is the way the market closed and now the very volatile (choppy) overnight session. The pullback to the POC, and bounce, is usually a very good sign for the bulls, but the fact that we had no follow through yesterday, or this morning, is troublesome!
In the profile pic and key levels below, futures are below the POC and 1/2 Back from yesterday, so this is obviously an edge to the sellers. If price stays below 5443 and 5465, then look for a retest of prior day lows at 5391, and if tempo and momentum are increasing to the downside, then look for lower targets at 5375 - 5355.
Now, if buyers take the price back above 5443 and 5465, then look for continued momentum to the upside back to prior highs at 5496.50, then upper targets at 5530 - 5540. Futures are trading at 5433 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out yesterday, so we still have 7 above and still 18 below! Non are in play today.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5530 - 5540
Key Level: 5465 POC then 5443 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5375 - 5355
/NQ upside target is: 19,400 - 19,450
Key Level: 18,880 VAL then 18,996 1/2 Back
downside target is : 18,700 - 18,670
/RTY upside target is: 1910 - 1930
downside target is: 1860 - 1850
Economic Data: Green Star
4-Week Bill Settlement
8-Week Bill Settlement
4-Month Bill Settlement
3-Yr Note Settlement
10-Yr Note Settlement
30-Yr Bond Settlement
Empire State Manufacturing Index @ 8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices@ 8:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary)
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5372 then $5280-5175 with Supply at $5500-5527
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5370 looking to play a break and retest above $5385 long targeting $5416 then new HOD
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5350 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5340 targeting $5315 then a break down into $5200
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SPY Key demand at $533 with Supply above at $545 and $550
Bullish Sellers trapped above $534 looking to play a break and retest from $535 long targeting $543 then a breakout mid high $545s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $530 after a break and retest below $529 targeting $528 then a breakdown into $526
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/NQ Key demand at $18820-50 with Supply above at $19250
Bullish Sellers trapped above 18820 looking to play a break and retest above $19115 long targeting $19250 then a breakout back into low $19400’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $18600 looking to play short from $18590 targeting a breakdown into $18400s then high $18300s
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QQQ Key Demand at $454-455 Supply $463 then $465
Bullish Sellers trapped above $455 looking to play a break and retest from $456 targeting $458 then a breakout into low mid $459s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $454 looking to play a break and retest short from $453 targeting $451s then $449s
Have a great day!!
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