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Good Monday morning!
Congratulations Rory!!
Friday, the bulls put their foot down and the market gears started shifting back to the upside! As we said Friday morning...
"Yesterday left me feeling a bit uneasy as traders and investors took back a big chunk of Wednesday's gains, however, the /ES closed in an area that still leaves the door open for potentially higher prices."
Markets closed well of of their intraday lows Friday, and that strength is carrying through today as futures are sharply higher this morning, so I am definitely looking for higher prices this week.. The only thing that would change this narrative would be if certain key levels and targets were taken out to the downside, and you can see the playbook below. In the meantime, the enormous pullback in such a short period of time, plus the administration also shifting gears regarding tariffs are two of the main reasons for my outlook.
In the profile pic and key levels below, futures are higher across the board with a true gap and overnight inventory that is 100% net long. The edge is certainly with the buyers, however, with a true gap outside of Friday's high, plus overnight inventory net long, this is the perfect recipe for some kind of fade lower. That being said, if this gap holds and there is very little pullback, then price will stay elevated and I will look for upper targets. The first key line in the sand is the overnight 1/2 back at 5447. If buyers can keep prices over the 1/2 back, then the edge remains with the bulls. If a larger fade occurs, then we could easily go back and test Friday's high at 5418. Next downside target would be the POC at 5392.
Now if sellers take the price below the POC, then look for lower targets at 5360 - 5350. IF they also get taken out, then I would be looking for the next target zone at 5315 - 5300. As mentioned above, losing these lower targets would be the only thing to change my narrative. Futures are trading at 5474 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added Friday however 5400 was taken out on that move higher. We now have 7 above and still 18 below!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5495 - 5515 then 5550 - 5600
Key Levels: 5447 then 5418 - 5410 Prior day high, VAH & ON Low
downside target is: 5360 - 5350 then 5315 - 5300
/NQ upside target is: 19,230 - 19,275 then 19,375 - 19,400
Key Level: 18,932 ON Low then Friday high 18,873.50
downside target is : 18,700 - 18,650
/RTY upside target is: 1930 - 1960
downside target is: 1830 - 1800
Economic Data: Very Light Day Today
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Thomas Barkin Speaks @ 12:00 PM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks @ 7:40 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5372 then $5280-5175 with Supply at $5500-5527
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5370 looking to play a break and retest above $5385 long targeting $5416 then new HOD
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5350 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5340 targeting $5315 then a break down into $5200
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SPY Key demand at $533 with Supply above at $545 and $550
Bullish Sellers trapped above $534 looking to play a break and retest from $535 long targeting $543 then a breakout mid high $545s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $530 after a break and retest below $529 targeting $528 then a breakdown into $526
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/NQ Key demand at $18820-50 with Supply above at $19250
Bullish Sellers trapped above 18820 looking to play a break and retest above $19115 long targeting $19250 then a breakout back into low $19400’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $18600 looking to play short from $18590 targeting a breakdown into $18400s then high $18300s
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QQQ Key Demand at $454-455 Supply $463 then $465
Bullish Sellers trapped above $455 looking to play a break and retest from $456 targeting $458 then a breakout into low mid $459s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $454 looking to play a break and retest short from $453 targeting $451s then $449s
Have a great day!!
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