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Good Friday morning!
Ever feel like you're being watched?!?!
Well fozzy has been lurking in the trees waiting to pounce and there it was...finally a liquidation break that actually stuck without the "V" shape reversal right back up!!! It's been a long time coming and as I've been saying for the past several days, as we keep drifting higher and higher and higher, the market is subject to a liquidation break and yesterday it actually happened!! The bears struck and struck hard and unless we get back into prior days range back above 5964, we are looking for lower prices to hold and this may actually last a few days into next week! Longs are now trapped above!
The S&P and NASDAQ put in that two day balance, but as we mentioned yesterday, breaking below 6008 in the ES was a bearish signal and once that level was breached, there was no looking back!!
Today it is very simple...unless buyers push price back into prior days range, then the sellers will resume their operations and old business, meaning those that have been long for many months, will also start selling. New business are those people that were getting short yesterday and in the overnight session, while old business means they are selling holdings from the past. When both of these groups act together at the same time, then the trend changes and we head lower. Also, please remember as we said yesterday.....
"The market is expensive here at these levels so a liquidation break that lasts for more than 10 minutes would be most welcomed at this point."
Please check out the target levels and profile pic below. You can see futures are sharply lower, below prior days range, so now it is all about will they buy the dip again?! Overnight inventory is net short with a true gap lower so there "should be" some kind of fade higher once the opening bell rings, but if that does not happen, then that is the most bearish scenario! Futures are trading @ 5943 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added yesterday so will still have 30 below, but we should be taking out at least one @ 5957.25. It was below us yesterday but because of the gap down it is actually above were current price is trading.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6010 - 6020
Key Levels: 5964.25 Yesterday's Low
downside target is: 5950 - 5940 then 5932 then 5900
/NQ upside target is: 21,110 - 21,130
Key Level: 20,952 Yesterday's Low
downside target is : 20,780 - 20,750 then 20,700
/RTY upside target is: 2370 - 2380
downside target is: 2325 - 2315
Economic Data:
3-Yr Note Settlement
10-Yr Note Settlement
30-Yr Bond Settlement
Retail Sales @ 9:30 AM ET
Empire State Manufacturing Index @ 9:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices @ 9:30 AM ET
Industrial Production @ 10:15 AM ET
Business Inventories @ 11:00 AM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 2:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand at $5980-90 with Supply above at $6030
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5985 after a pullback below $5980 looking to play SHORT targeting $5977 then $5950
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $6020 after a break and retest above $6025 playing LONG targeting $6045 then $6060
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SPY - Demand at $596-595 with Supply at $597
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $597 after a break and retest above $598 looking to play LONG targeting $599 then new HOD
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $597 after a retest from $596 targeting $595 then $594 New LOD
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/NQ - Key Demand at $21050-40 with Supply $21190-21200
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $21210 looking to play long after a pullback holds above targeting $21300 then $21385
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $21150 and holding looking to play short targeting $21100 then $21055
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QQQ - Key Demand at $509- 510 with Supply above at $513
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $510 looking to play long from a break and retest at $511 targeting $513 then $514
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $510 after a break and retest below $509 looking to play short targeting $508 then low $507
Also watching …
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TSLA Key Demand at $316 LOD with Supply at $323 that was previous Demand
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $323 after a break and retest from $322 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $ $318 then new LOD
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $323 after a break and retest from $324 looking to play long targeting $325 then $327
Have a great day and fun weekend!
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