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Good Thursday morning!
Big move by the bulls yesterday after the Fed left interest rates unchanged and market participants also liked what Fed Chair Powell had to say regarding future interest rate changes. Unfortunately for the buyers, there were headlines in the overnight session from ECB President Christine Lagarde who suggested the 25% tariffs on imports posed by the United States could subtract approximately .3 percentage pints from euro area growth in the first year! So, from the mosh pit to the roller coaster we go. I hope you have a strong stomach for all this?!
As far as yesterday, 5670.50 held like a champ; then 5684 was taken out, and up we went. There was some wicked volatility when the announcement was made by the Fed as we mentioned, but the real buying pressure came in at 2:30 when Fed Chair Powell took to the mic. Upper targets were smashed and new highs were made for the day. This morning however, as mentioned, that move has been derailed by strong selling across the pond.
In the key levels and targets for today, that 5670.50 could be back in play to the downside, and it will all be about whether or not the buyers can hold the target levels and prior lows at 5675.75. If buyers can take price back over 5723 which is 1/2 back and 5730 which is the POC (Point of Control) from yesterday, then we might entertain upper targets. If the sellers persist and take out our targets between 5690-5680 and yesterday's low at 5675.75, we could go even lower to 5665-5655. Futures are trading at 5696 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Yes, another new VPOC was added yesterday but this time it was below at the key level of 5670.50. One was also taken out above on the big move higher so now we now have 7 above and 28 below. 5670.50 could be in play today.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5760 - 5770
Key Levels: 5723 1/2 Back 5730 POC
downside target is: 5690 - 5680 then possibly 5665-5655
/NQ upside target is: 20,120 - 20,160
Key Level: 19,890 POC
downside target is : 19,745 - 19,710
/RTY upside target is: 2110 - 2120
downside target is: 2085 - 2075
Economic Data: VERY BUSY DAY
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
6-Week Bill Settlement
52-Week Bill Settlement
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index @ 8:30 AM ET
Current Account @ 8:30 AM ET
Existing Home Sales @ 10:00 AM ET
Leading Indicators @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Announcement@ 11:00 AM ET
2-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
5-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
7-Yr Note Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Treasury Buyback Results @ 2:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5675 then at $5690 with Supply above $5740 then $5790
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5700 looking to play a break and retest above $5713 long targeting $5759 then $5800
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5660 looking to play short after a break and retest from $5655 targeting $5610 then a break down into $5590s
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SPY - Key demand at then at $561 then Supply above that at $567 568
Bullish Sellers trapped above $561 looking to play a break and retest from $562 long targeting $563 then a breakout mid high $564
Bearish Buyers trapped below $561 after a break and retest below $560 targeting $559 then a breakdown into $557
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/NQ - Key demand at $19780 then at $19728 with Supply above at $19950
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19760 looking to play a break and retest above $19780 long targeting $19900 then a breakout back into low $20000
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19750 looking to play short from $19720 targeting a breakdown $19600s then $19520s
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QQQ Key Demand at $475-476 with Supply at $480-481
Bullish Sellers trapped above $475 looking to play a break and retest from $476 targeting $478 then a breakout into low mid $489s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $475 looking to play a break and retest short from $474 targeting $472s then $471s
Also watching
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TSLA - Key Demand at $222 then at $225-226 with Supply above at $238
Bullish - Sellers trapped above $238 after a break and retest from $239 looking to play LONG targeting $241 then a breakout into $2452
Bearish - Buyers trapped below $238-237 after a break and retest from $236 below looking to target $232 then a breakdown into $230
Have a great day!!
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