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Good Monday morning,
As a new month starts, we are coming off of a wild four day swing last week, and you can clearly see that in the profile pic below. Value has overlapped for four days, and the path forward is a bit unclear. I hate to say that but it is a fact that we must all understand. Trading is never easy, but there are times when it literally comes down to the roll of the dice! The one thing I can say is that as tough as these days can be, the market will not balance forever, and once we break out of the consolidation range, we can then hitch our wagons to the buyers or sellers at that point!
In the profile and key levels below, as mentioned, you can see that value has been balancing for the last four trading days, as highlighted by the yellow shaded areas in the box. As I am writing this report, the futures are down -15 in the ES, and we are back above the first key area of 5894, which is the VAL (Value Area Low) and half-back from Friday. It is also the lower range of the four day balance, so this is a critical.
So once the bell rings, the first key level to watch is 5894. If price gets below that level, then we should be looking for lower targets at 5865-5855. If the buyers can keep price over 5894, then look for a retest of the POC at 5916.50, then VAH (Value Area High) at 5927, then upper targets at 5940-5950
Once again, Stay fluid!
Futures are currently trading at 5898 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added or taken out on Friday, so we still have 6 above and 21 below. 5960 is the closest above and 5816 is the closest below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5940 - 5950
Key Levels: 5894 VAL & 1/2 Back then POC 5916
downside target is: 5865 - 5855
/NQ upside target is: 21,380 - 21,425
Key Level: 21,255 VAL & 1/2 Back then POC 21,370
downside target is : 21,150 - 21,100
/RTY upside target is: 2090 - 2095
downside target is: 2055 - 2045
Economic Data : Red Start Event
PMI Manufacturing Final @ 9:45 AM ET
ISM Manufacturing Index @ 10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending @ 10:00 AM ET
Lorie Logan Speaks @ 10:15 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Austan Goolsbee Speaks @ 12:45 PM ET
More Color By : Rich Rickus
- /ES - Key Demand $5915-5920 with Supply $5960
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5915 looking to play a break and retest above $5920 long targeting $5945 then $5960
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5910 looking to play short after a break and retest below $5910 targeting $5880 then a break down into $5850s
- SPY Key demand at then at $585 with Supply above at $592
Bullish Sellers trapped above $586 looking to play a break and retest from $587 long targeting $589 then a breakout mid high $590s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $585 after a break and retest below $584 targeting $582's then a breakdown into $580's
- /NQ Key demand at $21350 with Supply above at $21500-21400
Bullish Sellers trapped above $21400 looking to play a break and retest above $21450 long targeting $21525 then a breakout back into low $21600’s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $2135 looking to play short from below $21325 targeting $21275 then $21250
- QQQ Key Demand at $518 with Supply at $521
Bullish Sellers trapped above $518 looking to play a break and retest from $519 targeting $521 then a breakout into low mid $522
Bearish Buyers trapped below $518 looking to play a break and retest short from $517 targeting $515 then $514
Have a great trading day!
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