Morning Color

November 12, 2024

Good Tuesday morning!

The bulls are living in paradise, and still very much in control, as the market has hit it's 51st new all time highs this year alone! Not bad considering the S&P was trading @ 4394 just 12 months ago. We are now over 6K!

As mentioned yesterday, risk on around the world continues and as further proof, BITCOIN has hit all time highs breaching $90K and the small cap RUSSELL index is only about 20 points from also joining the all time high group!

Now that being said, I was warning that as the market keeps floating higher and higher, be on the lookout for a liquidation break, and yesterday we got one!! The levels were tremendously helpful once again. As we said prior to the bell Monday.....

"Any move below 6040.50 we could be targeting VAH (Value Area High) @ 6032.75, then overnight low @ 6029 then POC then 1/2 back. Just think about all these prices levels as bowling pins that need to be knocked down. Take them one at a time."

6040.50 was lost and the bowling pins were knocked down one at a time hitting all of those mentioned targets! It was nice. Yesterday's low was 6013.50 so the liquidation break was evidence of some market participants taking a few chips off of the table. It does not mean the top is in and we go lower from here as the buyers are still very much in control so just remember that. Now as we have been saying for the past four days.....

"The ONLY thing that will change things in the near term is now breaking back down below Monday's low of 5986 in the S&P, and below 6013 in the ES futures. That continues to the the important call!!"

Some of you must be asking what will cause the market to change course and reverse and what should we be looking for? Well that's it. Price needs to start taking out prior days lows and value needs to build lower. That is just not happening right now, but trust me it will! Be patient.

Futures are mixed and we are inside of prior days range so it is a coin toss today. Any price action between 6035 and 6013 is balance and basically a tug of war between the buyers and sellers. If price can get over the overnight high of 6032.50 then the POC @ 6035.50, then look for upper targets. Only losing 6013 would bring in more serious selling. Futures are trading @ 6030 at the time of this writing.

VPOC Update: Believe it or not, there was NOT a new VPOC added yesterday so the 30 below is still quite an impressive number.

TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:

/ES upside target is: 6050 - 6060

Key Levels: 6029 1/2 Back

downside target is: 6020 - 6010

/NQ upside target is: 21,300 - 21,325

Key Level: 21,195 1/2 Back & POC

downside target is : 21,135 - 21,115

/RTY upside target is: 2460 - 2470

downside target is: 2430 - 2420

Economic Data:

4-Week Bill Settlement