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Good Thursday morning!
The bounce happened yesterday but it was short-lived. I am a bit surprised actually that the markets didn't move higher and stay there. The reason being as I mentioned, we came down very far, very fast, a 10% drop, and there usually is more short covering and buying the dip at these lower prices. All that being said however, it feels like there is a short term low being put in and that key level in the S&P we mentioned at 5550 is still holding. That will be KEY moving forward.
Now of course we could just continue selling off from here and for that to happen, the prior low would have to be taken out in the /ES at 5550.25 and then Tuesday's low at 5534 would also have to be lost, and then we would be looking for lower prices. That is exactly why I used the "Volatility Ahead" warning sign.
In the key levels and targets below, you can see we are under some key levels being VAL (Value Area Low) and 1/2 Back at 5596. If price can move above that level then the POC is next at 5605 and then overnight highs at 5623 and VAH (Value Area High) at 5627. Upper targets would be next in line. If sellers come in and try to keep price down below 5596, then keep to the sell side and look for lower targets. PLEASE remember things can be shifty early on but the key range is 5605-5596. The more time we stay either above or below that range will tell us who will win the battle today! Futures are trading at 5594 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's yesterday so we still have 7 above and 25 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5655 - 5665
Key Levels: 5605 POC and 5596 VAL & 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5560 - 5550
/NQ upside target is: 19,890 - 19,920
Key Level: 19,571 VAL & 19,587 1/2 Back
downside target is : 19,400 - 19,380
/RTY upside target is: 2050 - 2055
downside target is: 2010 - 2000
Economic Data: *Red Star Event
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
6-Week Bill Settlement
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
PPI-Final Demand @ 8:30 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
52-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
20-Yr Bond Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5534 with Supply above at $5680-5670
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5670 looking to play a break and retest from $5675 long targeting $5725 then $5750
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5655 looking to play short after a break and retest from $5625 targeting $5610 then a break down into $5590s
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SPY Key demand at then at $556 then Supply above that at $560 then at $567-568
Bullish Sellers trapped above $560 looking to play a break and retest from $561 long targeting $563 then a breakout into $564
Bearish Buyers trapped below $560 after a break and retest below $559 targeting $558 then a breakdown into $556
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/NQ Key demand at $19139-45 then at $19400 with Supply above at $19850
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19850 looking to play a break and retest from $19875 long targeting $20000 then a breakout into $20100
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19400 looking to play short from $19350 targeting a breakdown $19200s into then new LOD at $19138
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QQQ Key Demand at $473-472 with Supply above $480-481
Bullish Sellers trapped above $480 looking to play a break and retest from $481 targeting $483 then a breakout into low $484
Bearish Buyers trapped below $76 looking to play a break and retest short from $477 targeting $475 then $474s
Also watching
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NVDA - Key Demand at $112 with Supply above at $117-120
Bullish - Sellers trapped above $112 after a break and retest from $113 looking to play LONG targeting $115 then a breakout into $116s
Bearish - Buyers trapped below $112 after a break and retest from $111 looking to play short targeting $109 then breakdown into $108
Have a great day!!
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