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Good morning!
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced yesterday that the Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates steady, but signaled a cut during the September meeting could be “on the table” if economic data continues to be good. I know he is trying to stay measured in his comments however the market is pricing in a 100% chance of a cut and as I mentioned yesterday, the only question is: will it be a 25 BP cut or a 50 BP cut?!?
Today is still busy with lots of economic data and earnings and it seems the buyers have come back strong ever since the double bottom of July 25th and July 30th lows. This morning futures are up across the board again and overnight inventory is net long for a second day in a row. The S&P has already recovered a 50% retracement from the drop starting on the July 16th highs to the July 25th lows, and will be above 5530...a key level. The next key level is 5565 and with the gap higher this morning markets will be very close so keep an eye on that number.
In the futures, any price action above 5588.50 (yesterday's high) is very bullish so look for upper targets. Any move back below will put the markets in a more neutral state but still edge to the bulls, between 5595-5560. Now at this point, ONLY a loss of 5558 then 5525 would change the tone and put things back to the bears. You can see from day to day how strong the buying pressure has been and how the important levels become apparent once we can see where value develops and where the overnight and intraday traders take the markets. There are clues all over the place! Have a great day and stay patient.
VPOC Update: Yes another new VPOC below @ 5469.25 added yesterday. Still 2 above and now 25 below.
5611.25 is the closest VPOC above current price and is in play for today!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5590 - 5605 then 5611.25 (VPOC)
Key Level: 5560 -5558 VERY KEY POC, 1/2 Back and Overnight low
downside target is: 5525 - 5510
/NQ upside target is: 19,710 - 19,750
Key Level: 19,500 - 19,480 1/2 Back & Overnight Low
downside target is : 19,310 - 19,280
/RTY upside target is: 2300 - 2310
downside target is: 2260 - 2250
Economic Data: BUSY TODAY!
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM EST
Productivity & Costs @ 8:30 AM EST
PMI Manufacturing @ 9:45 AM EST
ISM Manufacturing @ 10:00 AM EST
Construction Spending @ 10:00 AM EST
Natural Gas Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Demand $5540 then at $5522 with Supply at $5596-5585
1. Buyers trapped below $5520 and holding below after a pullback will be
looking to play short targeting $5500 then $5485
2. Sellers trapped above $5522 looking to play long targeting $5540 then
$5550
SPY - Demand at $550 and then at $547-546 with Supply at $554 HOD
1. Buyers trapped below $546 after a break and retest from $545 looking to
play short targeting $543 then 542
2. Sellers trapped above $547 looking to play long from a break and retest
from $548 targeting $550 then $552
SPX Demand at $5490 then at $5504-5507 with Supply at $5551-39
1. A breakdown below $$5490 and holding below after retest I will look to
play short targeting $5482 then $5466
2. A bounce above $5490 and reclaim support I will look to play long
targeting $5506 then $5520
/NQ Key Demand at $19389-19342 then at $19500 with Supply at $19717-19652
1. Sellers trapped above $19500 looking to play long targeting $19532 and
$19550
2. Buyers are trapped below $19495 off and holding , looking to play short
targeting $19455 then $19430
QQQ Demand at $465-466 with Supply above at $474 -476
1. Sellers trapped above $465 looking to play long off a break and retest
from $466 targeting $468 then $470
2. Buyers trapped below $464 after a break and retest below playing short
targeting $462 then $460
Also watching ...
AMD Key Demand at $134-135 with Supply above at $146 and $153-152
1. Buyers trapped below $146 looking to short off a break and retest from
$145 targeting $142 then $139
2. Sellers trapped above $147 looking to play long targeting $149 then $150
MSFT Key demand at $410-412 with Supply above at $426
1. Buyers trapped below $427 looking to play short off a break and retest
from $426 targeting $422.55 then $420
Have a great day!
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