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Good Wednesday morning!!
FED DAY!
The Federal Open Market Committee will announce their decision on interest rates and the market is expecting a 25 basis point cut when they come out @ 2:00 PM EST. As of this morning there is a 95.4% chance of this happening so it is already baked into market dynamics. What will cause more volatility is what Fed Chair Powell says when he begins his press conference @ 2:30 PM EST. It is at this time that market participants will determine what the FED's future path of cuts (or pause) will be so stay alert.
The NASDAQ actually took a break from hitting new all time highs again yesterday and is still above the key level of 21,880, telling us that the bull trend it still very much intact. The S&P is still above 6030 but keeps flirting with taking this level out so it could happen at any time. Once this does happen, we could get a signal of more selling, but until that happens, the edge remains to the buyers.
The profile pic and key levels to watch below will help your trading decisions today. The futures are higher but there has been a sharp liquidation break lower recently back into prior days range. Use 6138.25 as your first key line in the sand, and if buyers can take price above, then look for the VPOC above and upper targets.
If sellers push price below 6138.25, the next stop is 6127.50 and then lower targets listed! Again we do have multiple RED STAR events today and with the FED decision, anything can, and most likely will, happen! Futures are trading @ 6132 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: A new VPOC was added yesterday above @ 6154.50 and 6126 was taken out below. We now have two above and 29 below current price with the next closest @ 6090.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
BASED ON THE NEW H5 CONTRACTS
/ES upside target is: 6150 - 6160
Key Levels: 6138.25 Prior High and then 6127.50 POC
downside target is: 6110 - 6100 then 6090 then 6079
/NQ upside target is: 22,425 - 22,475
Key Level: 22,300 POC
downside target is : 22,220 - 22,180
/RTY upside target is: 2375 - 2385
downside target is: 2350 - 2340
Economic Data:
MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts and Permits @ 8:30 AM ET
Current Account @ 8:30 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Auction @11:30 AM ET
FOMC Announcement @ 2:00 PM ET
Fed Chair Press Conference @ 2:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - KEY DEMAND $6100 Supply at with Supply at $6160
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $6100 after a pullback below $6090-95 looking to play SHORT targeting $6050 then $6040
Bullish
Sellers trapped above 6100 after a break and retest above $6105-10 playing LONG targeting $6166 then new HOD
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SPY - Supply flipped to Demand at Supply 603 with Supply at $606
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $603 after a break and retest above $604 looking to play LONG targeting high $605 then $606
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $603 after a retest from $602 targeting $601 then breakdown into $599
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/NQ - Key Demand at $22000 with Supply at $22450
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $21900 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $21910 targeting $2250 then $23300
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $22000 looking to play SHORT after a pullback holds below $21955 targeting $21800 then $21700
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QQQ - Key Demand at $530-31 with Supply above at $536=537
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $530 looking to play long from a break and retest at $531 targeting high $534 then a breakout into $535s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $530 after a break and retest below $529 looking to play short targeting $526 then mid high $525
Also watching
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GOOGL Key Demand flipped to Supply at $196
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $195 after a break and retest from $196 looking to target $197.55 s then $197.80
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $191 after a break and retest from $190 looking to target $188 then $187
AMD Key Demand flipped to Supply at LOD $127-128 with key Demand below at $123 LOD
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $127 after a break and retest from $128 looking to play long targeting $129 then $131s
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $127 after a break and retest from $1126 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $124 then $123s
Have a great day!
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