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Good Monday morning!
The bounce has been confirmed and the short term low is in folks. Time to float higher. Just how high? We shall see. As we have been mentioning, the market dropped over 10% in a few weeks and the S&P hit key target levels around 5550, so buying demand picked up as the market was on sale. Please remember the market is nothing more than a group of buyers and sellers looking for value and opportunity. Just like fine art or exotic automobiles, when the price is too high, people stop buying, and conversely, when the price becomes reasonable or presents "attractive value" people start buying. That's it....think about it!!
In the key levels and targets below, PLEASE PAY ATTENTION!! I say the short term low is in and the bounce is confirmed however as always we NEED to see key levels hold. Today it all starts with 5631, 5609 and 5600. If futures stay above the POC and overnight lows and 1/2 back, then the buyers have regained control and look for upper targets. Also, any confirmed break out and close above the triple top at 5645 is also more bullish. If sellers come back in and take out 5600, then look for lower targets then possibly the new VPOC at 5540. It's really that simple for today. Futures are trading at 5636 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Yes, a new VPOC was added Friday HOWEVER it was put in BELOW price not above. 5605 was taken out Friday and 5540 was a new VPOC added below. We now have 7 above and 26 below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5675 - 5685
Key Levels: 5631 POC then 5609-5600
downside target is: 5590 - 5580
/NQ upside target is: 19,860 - 19,895
Key Level: 19,714 VAH & Bottom of Spike
downside target is : 19,450 - 19,420
/RTY upside target is: 2055 - 2060
downside target is: 2025 - 2015
Economic Data: Busy Day Today
3-Yr Note Settlement
10-Yr Note Settlement
30-Yr Bond Settlement
Retail Sales @ 8:30 AM ET
Empire State Manufacturing Index @ 8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories @ 10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index @ 10:00 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @ 11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5640 with Supply above at $5790-75
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5640 looking to play a break and retest from $5681 long targeting $5700 then $5722
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5640 looking to play short after a break and retest from $5630 targeting $5605 then a break down into $5590s
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SPY Key demand at then at $559 then Supply above that at $560 then at $563-564
Bullish Sellers trapped above $559 looking to play a break and retest from $560 long targeting $562 then a breakout into $564
Bearish Buyers trapped below $559 after a break and retest below $558 targeting $556 then a breakdown into $555
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/NQ Key demand at $19750 then at $19600 with Supply above at $20150 -20200
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19750 looking to play a break and retest from $19820 long targeting $20000 then a breakout into $20100
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19700 looking to play short from $19625 targeting a breakdown $19500s into then new LOD at $19138
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QQQ Key Demand at $476 with Supply above $480-481
Bullish Sellers trapped above $480 looking to play a break and retest from $481 targeting $483 then a breakout into low $484
Bearish Buyers trapped below $476 looking to play a break and retest short from $477 targeting $475 then $474s
Have a great day!!
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