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Good Thursday morning!
Markets blasted off yesterday after the CPI report was released and all top line fugues were up triple digits....even the S&P was up 107 points! Please remember we were calling for higher and discussed why back on Monday morning when we said the markets needed to lift first before the next leg lower. Why? Because inventory was too short at that time. And now we are up over 200 points in the S&P and over 700 points in the NDX! At this point however, it is a bit fuzzy as to which way they will take it from here. Will the buyers drive it back to the January 6th high of 6064 or will the sellers take this opportunity to sell the recent pop and move it back to 5800?! It is unclear at this time so we must stay fluid!
Currently futures are mixed across the board and our upside target has been hit @ 6015 as the overnight high topped out at 6017.50. Please keep an eye on the target levels and profile pic below. If futures stay between 5988.25 and 6001.25 then it is a coin toss. We would be balancing in this area. If 6001.25 is taken out again (during regular trading hours) then look for the upper targets to be hit again. If the sellers take it below 5988.25 then look for 1/2 back @ 5977 then on further tempo and momentum selling go for our lower targets of 5960-5950. Futures are trading @ 5997 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Because of the huge gap higher yesterday, we added a new VPOC below @ 5882.50 plus the 5950 which was already above price never got touched so that is still valid as well. We have 4 above and now back to 27 below and 5950 is still the closest.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 6015 - 6025
Key Levels: 5988.25 POC then 1/2 Back 5977
downside target is: 5960 - 5950
/NQ upside target is: 21,600 - 21,620
Key Level: 21,401 POC
downside target is : 21,175 - 21,150
/RTY upside target is: 2300 - 2310
downside target is: 2275 - 2265
Economic Data:
3-Month Bill Settlement
6-Month Bill Settlement
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM ET
Retail Sales @ 8:30 AM ET
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index @ 8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices @ 8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories @ 10:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report @ 10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
52-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
10-Yr TIPS Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
20-Yr Bond Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet @ 4:30 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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ES - Supply flipped to demand at 5900 with new supply above at $5992- $5985
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5900 after a pullback below $5895 looking to play SHORT targeting $5853 then $5840
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5900 after a break and retest above $5910 playing LONG targeting $5942 then $5975
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SPY - Supply flipped to Demand at $ 589- 590 with new supply above at $592
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $589 after a break and retest above $590 targeting $592 then $593
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $589 after a retest from $588 targeting $586 then breakdown into $585
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/NQ - Key Demand at $21180- 75 with Supply $21200 - 21400-10
Bullish
Sellers trapped above 21180 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $21200 targeting $21365 then a breakout into $21400
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $21150 looking to play SHORT after a pullback holds below $21145 looking to play short targeting $21050 then a breakdown into $20900
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QQQ - Supply flipped to Demand at $511 with new Supply above at $516-517
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $511 looking to play long from a break and retest at $512 targeting high $513 then a breakout into low mid $514
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $511 after a break and retest below $510 looking to play short targeting $508 then mid high $507
Also watching
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NVDA Demand $132 with Supply at $136
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $132 after a break and retest from $131 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $ $129 then high $127
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $132 after a break and retest from $133 looking to play long targeting $135 then $136.55
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AAPL Demand at $235-236 with Supply at $240
Bearish
Sellers trapped below $235 after a break and retest below $234 playing SHORT targeting $233 then breakdown into $232
Bullish
Buyers trapped above $235 after a break and retest above $236 playing LONG targeting $237then $238
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AMZN Demand at $220-221 with Supply above at $223
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $221 after a break and retest from $220 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $219 then breakdown into $218.55
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $221 after a break and retest from $222 looking to play long targeting $223 then breakout into $224
Have a great day!
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