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Good Friday morning!
This market is jumping around like a flea on crack, or maybe acting like your favorite roller coaster could be the better analogy?!! One minute things look incredibly bullish and then the next minute, we get sharp liquidation breaks and it starts to feel like "the top is in"! However, the markets reverse course very quickly and traders are left scratching their heads!!! Long? Short? Long? Short?! Which way???!!!???!!??
Look, the longer term trend is still up and for the time being we need to respect that fact. That being said, the more the markets keep moving higher, the greater the susceptibility that there's going to be a liquidation break and we've all seen them recently. The only thing that's different so far is that there is no follow through to the downside at the present time. We need to stay patient in the current market environment.
The key levels and profile pic below will give you important price levels to pay attention to for today's trading. The one thing we saw yesterday was a "poor low" in the ES yesterday. A poor low happens when traders are selling and looking to get price lower, however, there is no follow through and the bears and shorts get disappointed. This is a more bullish data point. Now it might not happen today but when that poor low gets taken out, that will be a great signal to get short and look for lower prices!
Any price that stays above 5885 still gives edge to the bulls. Any move above 5905 should see 5914 then upper targets of 5915-5920. Any price action between 5905-5885 is pure balance so expect back and forth choppy price action! Overnight inventory is net long and futures are currently trading @ 5900 at the time of this writing. Could go either way today so stay frosty!
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added yesterday and we still have 25 below current price. 5788.50 is closest below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5915 - 5920 then 5940-5945
Key Levels: 5905 POC & 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5875 - 5870
/NQ upside target is: 20,520 - 20,540
Key Level: 20,465 1/2 Back then 20,393 POC
downside target is : 20,270 - 20,240
/RTY upside target is: 2320 - 2330
downside target is: 2285 - 2280
Economic Data:
Housing Starts & Building Permits @ 8:30 AM ET
Raphael Bostic Speaks 9:30 AM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks 10:00 AM ET
Christopher Waller Speaks 12:10 PM ET
Raphael Bostic Speak 12:30 PM ET
Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand $5840- 50 then at $5865-70 with Supply above at $5919
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5870 after a pullback below $5860-65 looking to play SHORT targeting $5850 then $5835
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5870 after a break and retest above $5875-80 playing LONG targeting $5900 then new HOD
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SPY - Demand at $580-581 with Supply above at $585-586
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $581 after a break and retest above $582 looking to play LONG targeting $583 then $584
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $580 after a retest from $579 where Demand would flip back to Supply targeting $578 then $577
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/NQ - Key Demand at $20400 -350 with at Supply $20600 then below at $20525
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $20395 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $20400 targeting $20485 the $20500
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $20325 and holding looking to play short targeting $20250 then $20200
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QQQ - Key Demand at $486 with Supply above at $492
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $492 looking to play long from a break and retest at $493 targeting $495 then $496
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $491 after a break and retest below $490 looking to play short targeting $489 then $488
Also watching …
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TSLA Key Demand at 213 then at $216-217 with Supply at $224-225
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $224 after a break and retest from $225 looking to play LONG targeting $226.50 then $228
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $218 after a break and retest from $217 playing short targeting $215 then $213
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NVDA Key Demand $135 with Supply above at $137-136 old Demand
Bearish
Sellers trapped below $134 after a break and retest from $133 looking to play short targeting $132 then $130
Bullish
Buyers trapped above $135 after a break and retest from $136 looking to play long targeting $138 then $139
Have a great day and a terrific weekend!
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