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Good morning,
Hot CPI numbers came out yesterday and PPI numbers were just released this morning @ 8:30 AM EST! Market participants did not like the CPI data yesterday as it showed two months in a row of "increasing inflation" and the fact that the FED may not be as Dovish as hoped. This morning with the PPI it is the complete opposite....they took the markets right back up! As I have mentioned before, this market is acting like a flea on crack. TRUST NOTHING!!!
Key takeaway is be careful if you are aggressively long. Look to trim profitable positions (not all) and maybe start adding to shorts. PLEASE NOTE: It is a bit early as we still have earnings kicking off tomorrow so don't panic and lets see where value is built today. The market feels very "toppy" as we put a new VPOC above us yesterday and built value lower....both more bearish than bullish signs, so lets see if there is any follow through to the downside! If not, then longs are still OK. Please remember..... there has been MAJOR insider selling over the past several weeks so they have been unloading and cashing in huge gains! Food for thought. Please note the key levels below!
As of this writing, futures just popped higher after the PPI (Producer Price Index) and we are now back inside prior days range. Overnight inventory is still net short however with this data now released, the shorts are getting run over again. Our tell for today will be if buyers take us back outside of yesterdays high to the upside above 5226.50 or do the sellers step in and we lose 5185.
The key levels posted in the profile pic and target levels below will be important today. 5205 will be an important line in the sand and look for more longs above, looking for upper targets, or short below, looking for lower targets. If we chop back and forth and just "balance" again today, then scale things back a bit as far as trading.
VPOC Update: New VPOC above. We now have 2 above @ 5297.75 and 5234.50 and 19 still below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5240 - 5250
Key Level: **5205 1/2 Back & POC
downside target is: 5170 - 5160
/NQ upside target is: 18,340 - 18,360
Key Level: 18,170 1/2 Back & POC
downside target is : 18,075 - 18,055
/RTY upside target is: 2065- 2070
downside target is: 2025 - 2020
Economic Data: RED STAR EVENTS TODAY
PPI @ 8:30 AM EST
Jobless Claims @ 8:30 AM EST
Natural Gas Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Demand at $5170 - 5185 with Supply above at $5275-5260
1. Buyers fail to break out above $5230 looking to play short off a break and retest targeting $5210 first then $5200
2. If buyers can break and hold above $5230 I will look to play long targeting $5245 then $5250. New LOD after finding support on a break / retest I will play long. AS breakdown below $5160 leaves more room to downside targeting $5145
SPY - Consolidating inside key demand between $512-513 with Supply at $520-521
1. Buyers trapped at the open below $514 playing a break and retest short
from Tuesday and Monday LOWS targeting $511 then $509
2. Buyers reclaim support above $514 I will look to play long targeting $516
3. Sell of below $512 I will look to play short off a break / retest target $509
SPX - Key Demand at $5134- 5150 with Supply above at $5210- 5225
1. Buyers trapped at the open below $5170 I will look to play short targeting $5150
2. A breakout and support above $5175 I will look to play long targeting $5190
/NQ - Key Demand at $18000- 50 with Supply above at $18200-18230
1. Buyers trapped at the open below $18200 looking to play short targeting $18185
2. Sellers trapped at the open above $18235 looking to play long targeting $18270
QQQ - Key Demand at $434- 432 with Supply above at $439 -440
1. I would only like to play long if price can reclaim above $440 targeting $442
2. Buyers trapped at the open below $440 looking to play a break and retest short off $439 targeting $437 then $435
AMD - Balanced range at $172-174 with Demand below at $165-166
- Buyers trapped below $172 looking to play short targeting $169 then
$168. I would only look to play long is buyers find support above $174
JPM - Key Demand between $194 - 193 with Supply above at $197 - 199
- Buyers trapped below $198 looking to play a break and retest short targeting $196. Sellers trapped at the open above $193 I will look long targeting $195
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have an awesome day!
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