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Good Friday morning!
After a big move Wednesday on the FED announcement, buyers stepped on the gas once again and took the markets to new all time highs, and this time with a gap underneath current price! Gaps are very telling and show great strength (or weakness with a gap lower) but we know the move was up!
I'm going to keep it short and sweet today......bulls are still very much in control! We are getting overbought and stretched but that does not mean we can't keep getting more overbought and more stretched to the upside. Like a rubber band we don't know exactly when it breaks or snaps back violently!!!
We still have the poor structure from Wednesday and now with the gap below, there is even more poor structure underneath prices. With that being said, as long as the gap holds, then there still are no serious sellers present. Also, with a lack of excess high yesterday, this tells us that the auction is not quite over yet!! There are still buyers and cash on the sidelines. The market profile pic really lays everything out for you for today!!
As the pic below shows, we are almost back to the middle of yesterdays range which is bullish. The bears did show up yesterday around 1:45 PM EST and took the markets off the all time highs and closing near the lows of the session, and even the overnight low undercut yesterday's regular trading hour lows, however, as you can see in the pic, that green line shows where current price is trading...around 5310. Overnight high is at 5311.75 and 1/2 back is 5311.25 so that is a tell buyers are sticking around!
Now obviously that is at the time of this writing and it could change (and most likely will) but the gap, overnight low and Wednesday's highs will be key levels to watch and will be very important today! Any buying support that would bring us back to the POC at 5319.25, look for further continuation the prior days high at 5322.75, then the 5330 - 5335 area! Only is we start to lose the 5300-5295 area would have sellers gain confidence and momentum!
Futures are higher again this morning and price is within prior days range. Overnight inventory is mixed to net long so there is a good chance that the market will chop around and balance today. Jerome Powell is speaking again starting before the bell at 9:00 AM EST so there could be some unexpected volatility there.
VPOC update: ANOTHER NEW RECORD......We now have 22 untested points of control still below current price! 5239.75 was added below yesterday!! Wow wow wow!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5330 - 5335
Key Levels: 5310 - 5312 Overnight High & 1/2 back
downside target is: 5300 - 5295 then 5280-5275
/NQ upside target is: 18,715 - 18,735
Key Levels: 18,620 - 18,600 Value Area Low & Overnight high
downside target is : 18,475 - 18,460
/RTY upside target is: 2144 - 2150
downside target is: 2110 - 2105
Economic Data: Busy Day!!
Jerome Powell Speaks @ 9:00 AM EST
Baker Hughes Rig Count @ 1:00 PM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key area of Demand at $5290-5300 with Supply above at $5322- 5315
- I would only like to play short if price can break below $5290 and hold or if buying fails inside Supply , not making a new HOD targeting $5310 first then $5300
SPY - Key Demand $521-522 with Supply above at $524 HOD
- Strong sell off at then looking to play a break and retest long from $421
- Buying at the open waiting to play long off a pullback from $522
SPX - Key Demand at $5240- 5250 with Supply at $5265- 5255
/NQ - Key Demand $18500 18535 with Supply above at $18620 - 18600
QQQ - Key Demand at $444-443 with Supply above at $447- 448
- I would only like to play short if price can break and hold below $447
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great day and an amazing weekend!
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