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Good Wednesday morning!
The markets finished mixed to flat yesterday with some minor losses in the DOW and S&P and some small gains in the NASDAQ. There was some very volatile intraday price action but the key levels and targets proved helpful once again. Stormy seas continue so expect the same for the near term. At this time, 5830 is key in the S&P cash (SPX) and we will be very close to testing that level at the open this morning, so whether or not that price holds today will be key moving forward.
Today futures are lower again and overnight inventory is almost 100% net short... again. As we mentioned yesterday, "there should be some fade higher to balance out this overnight inventory" and that is exactly what happened. Today we could see the same thing. At some point in the future, we will have a liquidation break that holds and stays lower but it has not happened as of yet. When that happens it will be a great bearish tell!
In the key levels and profile pic below, for the bulls, it will be about 5884 to 5892.50. Any price action that stays below this range will be more advantageous for the bears. If the bulls can retake price and move back above 5892.50 then look for upper targets! Any price action that stays below 5884 then look for a break of 5876, which is the overnight low and value area low, then look for lower targets. Futures are trading at 5872 at the time of this writing!
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's were added yesterday and we still have 25 below current price. 5788.50 is still the closest one below.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5910 - 5915
Key Levels: 5892.50 POC & Triple bottom @ 5884
downside target is: 5860 - 5850
/NQ upside target is: 20,620 - 20,650
Key Level: 20,495 POC - 20,485 1/2 Back
downside target is : 20,450 - 20,420
/RTY upside target is: 2274 - 2280
downside target is: 2225 - 2220
Economic Data:
MBA Mortgage Applications @ 7:00 AM ET
Michelle Bowman Speaks @ 9:00 AM ET
Existing Home Sales @ 10:00 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations @ 10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report @ 10:30 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Thomas Barkin Speaks @ 12:00 PM ET
20-Yr Bond Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Beige Book @ 2:00 PM ET
Treasury Buyback Results @ 2:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand $5865-50 with Supply above at $5900
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5900 after a pullback below looking to play SHORT targeting $5850 then $5833
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5900 after a break and retest above $5907 playing LONG targeting $5928
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SPY - Demand at $580-581 with Supply above at $585-84
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $581 after a break and retest above $582 looking to play LONG targeting $584 then $585
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $580 after a retest from $579 where Demand would flip back to Supply targeting $577 then $576
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/NQ - Key Demand at $20325 -350 with at Supply $20600 -$20550
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $20350 looking to play long after a pullback holds above $20370 targeting $20420 the $20500
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $20350 and holding looking to play short targeting $20300 then $20200
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QQQ - Key Demand at $491 with Supply above at $497-496
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $491 looking to play long from a break and retest at $492 targeting $494 then $495
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $491 after a break and retest below $490 looking to play short targeting $489 then $488
Also watching …
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AAPL Key Gap down at $236 with Supply above at $237 / Demand not until $233
Bearish
- Sellers trapped below $236 looking to play a Short after a pullback fills the GAP playing short off and GAP and Go targeting $234 then high $232s
Bullish
- Buyers trapped above $236 playing a break and retest Long targeting new HOD
Have a great day!
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