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Good Tuesday morning!
Well the bears came roaring back yesterday and stopped the bounce dead in its tracks almost right from the opening bell! Upper target was missed by only 3 points in the regular trading hours session, however, nailed it in the overnight session hitting 6000.50, and that was all she wrote. Sellers quickly re-entered the fray and ended up hitting downside targets as well!
More tariff talks sent the markets lower (again) yesterday, however, the market was in dire need of a pullback regardless, and now we are getting one, which by the way started back on Friday, February 21st! We have been talking about the edge turning over to the bears since then, and to look for more downside, and selling into the rallies, and so far that playbook has worked out well.
In the profile pic and key levels, you can see we are well below some very key price points from yesterday! We are way below the top of the spike, the VAL (Value Area Low), the ON high (overnight high) and even the overnight 1/2 back! Price being below all of these key levels shows us that sellers are continuing to be engaged! First key line in the sand for today will be yesterday's low at 5821.75. Any price exploration above that could send the markets higher first targeting 5848 then 5884.
Even if we do get a bounce, any price action that stays below 5884 is bearish, and any price action that stays below 5848 even more so! The very key level moving forward is 5800 in the ES futures and 5773 in the S&P cash. Those levels are from the Jan 13th Deep Seek low. Futures are trading @ 5830 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: No new VPOC's added or taken yesterday so we still have 4 above and 29 below. 5801 however is very much in play today!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5930 - 5940
Key Levels: 5848 ON 1/2 back then 5884 ON high
downside target is: 5800 - 5790
/NQ upside target is: 20,805 - 20,845
Key Level: 20,317 Prior low then 20,438
downside target is : 20,260 - 20,220
/RTY upside target is: 2140 - 2150
downside target is: 2090 - 2080
Economic Data: Light Day
Motor Vehicle Sales
4-Week Bill Settlement
8-Week Bill Settlement
4-Month Bill Settlement
Treasury Buyback Announcement (Preliminary) @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Announcement @11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
John Williams Speaks @ 2:20 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand flipped at $5930-20 with Supply above at $6000-10
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5920 looking to play a break and retest from $5925 long targeting $5940 then $5975
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5930 looking to play short from $5920 targeting $5910 then a break down into $5980s
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SPY - Key demand at $589 with Supply above at $594
Bullish Sellers trapped above $589 looking to play a break and retest from $590 long targeting $592 then a breakout into $594
Bearish Buyers trapped below $590 after a break and retest below $589 targeting $586 then a breakdown into $585 high $584s
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/NQ - Key demand at $20685 and above that at $20750$21800s with Supply above at $21050
Bullish Sellers trapped above $20750 looking to play a break and retest from $20810 long targeting $20900 then a breakout into $21000s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $20750 looking to play short from $20725 targeting a breakdown into $20600 then $20500s from last Friday
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QQQ Key Demand at $504 with Supply above at $513-512
Bullish Sellers trapped above $504 looking to play a break and retest from $505 targeting $506 then a breakout into high $507s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $504 looking to play a break and retest short from $503 targeting $502 then $501
Have a great day!!
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