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Good Wednesday morning
We are going to keep it with the dark and stormy theme out there today at least for the time being as there is a major battle going on between the bulls and bears right now! We are actually holding the gap down yesterday and as you can see in the profile pic below, any price action that stays within yesterdays range is neutral as the market is trying to gauge it's next move. If we break back above Tuesday's high then target gap fill to 5280-5285. If 5235-5230 gets taken out to the downside then we could see more selling pick up with momentum because people would be trapped higher above!
As I mentioned yesterday.....
"It looks like the sellers are finally stepping up their operations as all major indices closed in the red yesterday, and there is actually follow through as futures are down sharply this morning. We have been warning of this for some time now and it looks like the overbought market needs a breather!"
As of this writing, futures are very choppy with overnight inventory net short. It will be tough to determine opening direction as there should be some fade higher but we are inside of yesterday's range so that makes it a bit trickier! Yesterday with the big gap down we should have faded higher and we didn't until later in the day, so this does tell us buyers are still present but there are some more data points lining up for the bears!
VPOC Update: A new VPOC yesterday higher at 5294.25 and the one that was below us at 5275 is now above us AND we took out 5239.75! It was a crazy day with the VPOC's so that fast we now have 2 above us and 21 below. Adding a few above is definitely a good sign for the bears!!!
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5280 - 5285
Key Levels: 5250 - 5245 1/2 back Overnight Low & POC
downside target is: 5235 - 5230
/NQ upside target is: 18,415 - 18,445
Key Level: 18,240 - 18,250 POC & Overnight low
downside target is : 18,195 - 18,175
/RTY upside target is: 2110 - 2115
downside target is: 2065 - 2060
Economic Data:
ADP Employment Report @ 8:15 AM EST
PMI Composite @ 9:45 AM EST
ISM Services @ 10:00 AM EST
Crude Inventories @ 10:30 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Demand at $5230 - 5250 with Supply still at $5264 - 5275
- If price opens up above $5255 I will look to play long after a break and retest targeting key Supply then new HOD. Heavy buying at the open failed to break above $5265. I’ll look to play short after buyers become trapped inside demand.
- Sell off at the open new LOD with a break and retest above $5230 looking to play long targeting $5252 then $5260
SPY - Key Demand at $515 - 516 with Supply above at $521-522 then at $524-526
- First watching to see where it breaks out of this balanced range ( pre market low $517.65 - pre market high $519.13 ) above I want to look to play long off a break and retest targeting $520 then $521. Below $517.65 I want to play short
- Strong sell off at the open failure to break below $516 I will look to play long
- Buyers at the open failing to break above $521 I will look to play short
SPX - Gap Down : Key Demand at $5190 - 5180 then below at $5165 - 5170
- Watching the Gap fill between $5230 - 5210 : failure to break above $5230 I will look short targeting $5215. Sell off at the open failing to break below $5184 I will look to play long after a break out from key demand then pullback above VWAP
/NQ - Key Demand at $18200 - 18225 with Supply above at $18380 - 18400
- Old Supply above that from yesterday and Monday at $18510- 18480
- If price can open and hold above $18260 I would like to play long after sellers are trapped targeting $18285 then $18412. Buyers at the open failing to break above $18350 I will look to play short off a break and retest targeting $18310
QQQ - Key trendline on 4hr along with a bounce premarket at key demand
- Watching 4hr - 1hr trend line where price bounce pre market at $435 where if there is a sell off I want to see it break below $432 and hold before shorting
- Buyers at the open break above $441.55 and hold I will look to play long
targeting $442 then $442.70. A break down below $441 I will play short
- Sell off at the open failing to break below $438 I will look to play long
AMD - Demand flipped to Supply at $182 with previous supply above at $185
- Breakout above $181 I will look to play long targeting $183 first then $184
- Failing to break above $180 I will then look to play short targeting $178.80
TSLA - Inside a balanced range where demand flipped to supply at $175-173
- Demand below at $162 where sellers can get trapped at the open looking to play long targeting $165 then $167 with the sop loss below LOD
MU - Selling off from yesterday where Demand flipped to Supply at $123 where I would like to play a break and retest from $123 targeting $121.50 then $120
- A break out above $123 I will then look to play long targeting 124.30 then HOD
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have a great day and stay safe!
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