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Good morning,
Well, once again the selling didn't last very long last week. I think this is like the 15th or 16th time I've said this over the past few months. After sellers came into the markets on Thursday afternoon in a big way, it looked like the beginning of a well needed pullback (just like many times before), however each one turned out to be a false start. Thursday was no different.
The sell off was wicked Thursday afternoon but the buyers stepped right back in to prop things back up Friday and we even added a new VPOC above current price. As I said Friday morning before the opening bell after the big plunge.....
"The key takeaway and data we will learn today will be to find out just how committed buyers are..... meaning are they willing to just step back in as usual and push the markets right back up?!?! If not, then I will be looking for more downside in the foreseeable future!!"
Well obviously we now know the answer. Buyers had absolutely no problem stepping back in after a huge move lower and this puts us in the middle of a very large range where markets are now jumping around like a flea on crack!!
As of this writing, futures are slightly higher with overnight inventory mixed and we are inside of Friday's range. As such, there is no real edge this morning so expect anything.
The key levels are posted in the profile pic below so keep a close eye on these for further signs of strength or weakness. If buyers keep it above 5240-5236, then look for upper targets. Below these levels look for lower targets. Any price action that stays contained within the Value Area (the yellow shaded portion) and over night range is just considered balance. Market participants are waiting for new information so we could consolidate for a few days. That new information by the way starts coming out this week....Q1 Earnings Season! JPM, WFC, C, BLK and DAL (among others) all come out this week.
VPOC Update: A new VPOC was added on Friday. We now have 1 above @ 5297.75 and 19 still below. 5183.75 and 5156 are closest at the present time.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5285 - 5295 (VPOC from Thursday 5297.75)
Key Levels: 5240-5236 VAL, Overnight Low & 1/2 Back
downside target is: 5210 - 5205
/NQ upside target is: 18,450 - 18,475
Key Level: 18,255 - 18,247 VAL, Overnight Low & 1/2 Back
downside target is : 18,150 - 18,120
/RTY upside target is: 2110 - 2115
downside target is: 2060 - 2055
Economic Data: Light Today & Tomorrow!
Consumer Inflation Expectations @ 11:00 AM EST
More Color.......
/ES - Key Demand from Friday at $5190- 5205 with Supply above at $5280 -5252
- Consolidating inside key demand with some selling overnight
- First I am watching to see how price reacts at the open if selling occurs and buyers step in above $5180 looking to play long targeting $5200 then $5225
- Buyers fail to break out above $5280 I will look to play short after break and retest targeting $5245 then $5233
SPY - Key Demand at $512- 514 with a bounce at Supply above at $521 - 520
- Buyers fail to break out above $421 and hold as support I will look to play short off a break and retest from $519 targeting $518 then $517
- Strong sell off at the open holding above $514 I want to play long targeting $516
SPX - Key Demand at $5160 , 5140- 5130 then at $5090 05100 wit Supply at $5250-70
- Buyers fail to break out above $5220 I will view this as bearish and look short
- I would only like to play long after a sell off finds support above $5180
/NQ - Key Demand at $$18000 -50 then at $18200-30 with Supply at 18410- 18385
- Buyers fail to break above $18400 I will view this as a bearish sign looking to play short targeting $18375 then $18350
QQQ - Key Demand at $432 -435 with Supply above at $450-447 then below at $443
- Buyers trappers at the open below $443 looking to play a break and retest short from $442 targeting $440 then $439
- Sellers tapped above $435 looking to play long targeting $436 then 437
BA - Key Demand at $173 LOD then at $176-178 with Supply at 184-182
- Gap and Go looking to lay short below $184 / break and retest $182 target $180
AMD - Key Demand at $165 with Supply at $170 - 172 and at $179- 180
MU - Key Demand at $121-122 then at $118 with Supply above at $130-128
- Waiting for sellers to become trapped above 121 looking to play long target $124
- Strong sell off at the open with bounce inside demand $118 looking to play long
- Buyers at the open fail to break above $125 and hold, I will look to play short
As ALWAYS, have your stops in place!!!
Have an awesome day!
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