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Good Tuesday morning!
The bounce yesterday looked fantastic, however, the way the market closed was less than ideal. (Hence a bit of confusion right now as evidenced by our friend above!) I still believe the market can go a bit higher but we need to see key levels hold again and they are posted below. In the meantime, as mentioned yesterday, the first set of key levels did in fact hold......
"In the key levels and targets below, PLEASE PAY ATTENTION!! I said the short term low is in and the bounce is confirmed however as always we NEED to see key levels hold. Today it all starts with 5631, 5609 and 5600."
Yesterday's low was 5615.50 and futures closed at 5680.25 (in the ESH25) so a clear win for the bulls. Now the $64,000 question is....will they hold again today?!?!
Quick public service announcement: Each quarter, futures contracts in the ES, NQ, YM and RTY "rollover" as one contract expires and the new front month comes into play. Well today is rollover so we are now trading the /ESM25 (from /ESH25) and the levels will be adjusted so please be mindful of this and adjust accordingly. The futures contracts each quarter are: H, M, U and Z....March, June, September and December. For reference as far as adjustments, the ES contract difference between /ESH25 and /ESM25 is around 53 points. In the NASDAQ futures, the difference between /NQH25 and /NQM25 is 215 points.
In the key levels and targets below, PLEASE PAY ATTENTION ONCE AGAIN!! Price is still above Friday's high, and this is a bullish sign; however, we are below the POC at 5733 and also below 1/2 back from yesterday which is 5724. This is much less bullish. Unless price can move back above these two very key levels, the sellers may re-emerge and try to take it back down to lower targets. Futures are trading at 5714 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Yes, another new VPOC was added yesterday and once again below price at 5685. 2 new VPOC's in just as many days. We still have 7 above and now 27 below. Also, the VPOC's have been adjusted for the new current M25 contract.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5780 - 5790
Key Levels: 5724 1/2 Back then POC 5733
downside target is: 5690 - 5680
/NQ upside target is: 20,250 - 20,280
Key Level: 19,921 Overnight Low
downside target is : 19,940 - 19,000
/RTY upside target is: 2105 - 2115
downside target is: 2070 - 2060
Economic Data: Busy Day Today
4-Week Bill Settlement
8-Week Bill Settlement
4-Month Bill Settlement
FOMC Meeting Begins
Housing Starts and Permits @ 8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices @ 8:30 AM ET
Industrial Production @ 9:15 AM ET
Treasury Buyback Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
8-Week Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
4-Month Bill Announcement @ 11:00 AM ET
6-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
20-Yr Bond Auction @ 1:00 PM ET
Treasury Buyback Results @ 2:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Key Demand $5640 then above that at $5680 with Supply above at $5790-75
Bullish : Sellers trapped above $5680 looking to play a break and retest from $5685 long targeting $572- then $5742
Bearish Buyers trapped below $5640 looking to play short after a break and retest from $5630 targeting $5605 then a break down into $5590s
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SPY Key demand at then at $560-561 then Supply above that at $560 then at $568-569
Bullish Sellers trapped above $560 looking to play a break and retest from $561 long targeting $563 then a breakout into $564s
Bearish Buyers trapped below $560 after a break and retest below $559 targeting $556 then a breakdown into $555
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/NQ Key demand at $19750 then at $19800 with Supply above at $20167 -20200
Bullish Sellers trapped above $19800 looking to play a break and retest from $19825 long targeting $20000 then a breakout into $20100
Bearish Buyers trapped below $19700 looking to play short from $19625 targeting a breakdown $19500s into then new LOD at $19138
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QQQ Key Demand at $476 with Supply above $480-481
Bullish Sellers trapped above $480 looking to play a break and retest from $481 targeting $483 then a breakout into low $484
Bearish Buyers trapped below $476 looking to play a break and retest short from $477 targeting $475 then $474s
Have a great day!!
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