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Good Monday morning!!
From being watched and stalked to full blown attack, the bears showed just how powerful they can be! Massive selling took the entire move higher after the election night right back down, and now it's just a matter of time before the gap fills back to the November 5th highs. They sit at 5783 in the SPX and 5822 in the ES futures. I am not saying we fill that gap today but odds favor it in the near term.
As we said Friday morning before the opening bell.....
"Longs are now trapped above! Today it is very simple...unless buyers push price back into prior days range, then the sellers will resume their operations and old business, meaning those that have been long for many months, will also start selling. New business are those people that were getting short yesterday and in the overnight session, while old business means they are selling holdings from the past. When both of these groups act together at the same time, then the trend changes and we head lower."
Well as we all saw, the buyers could not get price anywhere close to Thursday's range and we now have a huge gap above going all the way up to 5964 which is the Thursday low. Unless the buyers step back in to buy the dip, then short term direction will be lower and stay that way for a while. And please remember I have no way of knowing with 100% certainty but price action will confirm or deny what I am saying!
Please check out the target levels and profile pic below. Futures are mixed this morning on overnight inventory that is net long, however there is no true gap as we are inside of Friday's range. You can see in the profile pic where the important lines in the sand are located, at the POC, 1/2 back and overnight high!
If the price stays between 5909 - 5893 then it is balance. Any price that explores above 5909, then look for breach of 5915. Any move back above this level could bring on a short squeeze so then look for upper targets. If futures get below 5893, then look for lower targets! It's really that simple for today. Bulls are still feeling dizzy from the beating they took Friday so lets see if the bears take advantage of this and keep attacking?!?! Futures are trading @ 5900 at the time of this writing.
VPOC Update: Yes you guessed it! After the large gap down Friday, a new VPOC's added Friday above current price @ 6004 and an old one below @ 5957.25 was below price but because of the big gap down it is now above current price. And by the way, VPOC's need to be taken out during regular trading hours session so even if they get taken out in the overnight session, that does not count! We now have two above and 28 below where current price is trading.
TARGETS AND KEY LEVELS TO WATCH:
/ES upside target is: 5935 - 5945
Key Levels: 5909 POC then 5915
downside target is: 5855 - 5845
/NQ upside target is: 20,655 - 20,685
Key Level: 20,591 1/2 Back
downside target is : 20,345 - 20,315
/RTY upside target is: 2340 - 2350
downside target is: 2290 - 2280
Economic Data:
Housing Market Index @ 10:00 AM ET
Austan Goolsbee Speaks @ 10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction @ 11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital @ 4:00 PM ET
More Color....... By Analyst Rich Rickus
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/ES - Demand at $5870-85 with Supply above at $5940–55
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $5940 after a pullback below $5935-30 looking to play SHORT targeting $5915 then $5890
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $5960 after a break and retest above $5960-65 playing LONG targeting $5988 then $6010
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SPY - Demand at $583-584 with Supply at $591-590
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $590 after a break and retest above $591 looking to play LONG targeting $593 then high $594
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $590 after a retest from $589 targeting $587 then $586
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/NQ - Key Demand at $20400-450 with Supply $20800-55
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $20900 looking to play long after a pullback holds above targeting $21000 then $21185
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $20850 and holding below $20800 looking to play short targeting $20650 then $20550
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QQQ - Key Demand at $494-495 with Supply above at $508-507
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $506 looking to play long from a break and retest at $507 targeting $509 then $510
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $506 after a break and retest below $505 looking to play short targeting $504 then low $503’s
Also watching …
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TSLA Key Demand at $316 LOD with Supply at $323 -325 that was previous Demand
Bearish
Buyers trapped below $324 after a break and retest from $323 looking to play SHORT TARGETING $ $318 then new $315
Bullish
Sellers trapped above $325 after a break and retest from $326 looking to play long targeting $328 then $330
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AMD Key Demand at $139 Gap UP with Supply above at $141
Bearish
- Buyers trapped below $139 looking to play a Short after a pullback below targeting $138 then new LOD
Bullish
- Buyers trapped above $139 playing a break and retest from $140 looking to play Long targeting $141 then $143
Have a great day!
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